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Sorry, I don't really celebrate Christmas normally and certainly didn't celebrate last year. Again can only give you the calculated average, which should be reasonably accurate, given it was nothing special.

It's "quick and dirty" because it's not exact. Specifically, it's talking about using a Eurodollar "pack" for simplicity, rather than a proper strip of contracts. You weigh the spread in such a way that when a parallel shift of the curve(s) occurs, you don't incur any PNL. You do that by...

OKI-DOKI, I see. I can't entirely disagree with this. [B] No, no, I can definitely tell you what it costs on average, by taking the cost of my monthly grocery bill divided by the number of days. My question was specifically about Thanksgiving only because it's a "special" dinner.

Nah, your assertion that the world *will* at some point in time be ablaze and destitute because of inflation, which in turn is a result of all this money printing? Say, the world isn't ablaze and destitute in the next 5 years, will that lead you to conclude that you've been wrong? In other...

I am all for disagreement (it's why I am here and always happy participate in discussions; at the very least, I learn smth new in the process). However, if I were to make a bold statement like "BLS numbers are horsesh1t", I would sure want to be able to provide some factual proof. As to "down...

Oh, come on, TT... When have I ever told anyone what to believe? Do your own homework, make your own conclusions, that's what I have been saying (and doing). It made no sense to me that BLS numbers are treated with more than healthy skepticism, while ShadowStats ones are treated as gospel...

I recall it differently, TT. I gave you specific points where I disagreed with Santelli and, thus, thought he was wrong (see page 10 of the old thread). Subsequently, in my discussion w/Maverick, I provided a lot of specific facts to support my opinions. Just because you then disagreed with...

It's not really an official change... Terminology sorta shifted over time, really. Mainly because liquidity is now mostly available in other places and there's a lot of mkt participants looking at spreads in other ways. As a result, people generally don't talk about TED spread as much these...

Yes, correct... Originally, TED spread was defined using T-bill rates. Nowadays, people normally look at longer-dated treasuries, rather than t-bills.

All these are different, in a variety of ways... Which is why you're trading these as spreads, with their own specific dynamics. It's a space with a lot of moving parts, which makes it more challenging, but also periodically offers opportunities.

Fed Funds effective rate, in this case. Nah, it's sorta complicated when you're this close to home and it's hard to find Eurodollar contracts with sufficient granularity. The most natural futures to trade the t-bills against would be FedFunds, as they lend themselves much more readily to this.

There's a few differences... Firstly, the Jan14 t-bill matures in Jan2014, whereas the Jan14 ED contract settles to the 3m LIBOR fixing on 13Jan2014 (so the rate covers the 15Jan14-15Apr14 period). Secondly, there's a spread between the two markets. A decent, albeit imperfect, proxy for...

Hopeless... What a textbook illustration of the Dunning-Kruger effect!

Oh, no... Can we please avoid this discussion here?

Like I said in my other post, it's only your ignorance (or worse) that makes you think these options are given for free.

So here's my somewhat rambling criticism of ShadowStats inflation figures and methods. 1. John Williams of ShadowStats sells a newsletter, rather than inflation data. Given the contents of his newsletters (e.g. he has been forecasting a hyperinflationary collapse in the US since 2005), one...

Thank you, sire... That is high praise, indeed.

I have an idea for you, tj... Try to imagine being wrong. Think about the possibility - and yes, I know, it's very difficult to imagine - that you're missing something obvious. Specifically, maybe the option "given for free" was either a) worthless; or b) was actually not given for free.

I am not really into "lecturing", so no satisfaction for Monsieur Swan... I think there's another thread here where we sort of started to discuss the potential methods. In general, there's really no "correct" way of doing it. The main thing is to make gradual improvements to the process...

Hahaha, Harley Bassman is on HeroZedge... Yeeehaw! He's right, of course, and this is the right trade.