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This is not correct. SPY is a security. It's dividends get paid out on ex-div date just like a stock. SPX is a cash index. And like ALL cash indices, you have to calculate the net present value of all the future cash flows to the present. THAT is why the SPX trades at different levels from...

It's going down right in line with VX futures.

You can't do anything without the number lines. The number lines are going to increase your odds of catching the good trend days.

Bobby, they probably would not want to be up on the year fully margined out on short gamma. I'm sure you understand that. The professional managers only care about "risk adjusted" returns, not absolute returns. You don't need a money manager to simply pile on risk or beta. You invest in a...

I've never looked at really long term number lines. I have the QTR levels and yearly levels which can be used for longer term trends. You need to be careful with long term forecasts. I would be more inclined maybe to create weekly number lines which you could use 30 weekly data points and...

Bobby, you should never have a position on that could blow you out. Even a 50% hit is unacceptable. Remember, you have to make 100% going forward just to get back to even. One of the things most traders struggle with is actually not being able to make money, but rather being able to make...

I don't know any firm that would let you trade remote as a new trader. They want you there in the office at least for the first year. And most of these firms are not interested in pure directional traders, so I hope your not a punter.

Maxed out? As in your personal level or max margin?

Nice post Magna. You're alright in my book. :)

"Expected Returns"

Do you have the full Times article?

Damn. I long gave up on anyone putting season 3 out there. A pleasant surprise!

It's not a failure story. But his followers are probably more interested in how this strategy does when it's not working vs coming on here during the theta bleed and talking about the small decay he is earning every day. I won't call him a failure. I just want him to be consistent.

Bobby, any reason why you stopped updating your spreadsheet?

I think the issue is they have not figured out how to remove one bubble without creating another one. As an elected official, it's very hard to live with the idea of removing a bubble at the expense of their power because removing it will create a lot of short term pain which will cost them...

This is a great read on all asset classes. The "main" point this book makes is that for most asset classes, the expected return is "highly" dependent on where in the cycle you enter. You can't just make blanket statements like real estate always a good investment or stocks always return 7.5% a...

Honestly if you are a trader whatever storms come out of it you will be able to see and trade the volatility that comes from it. Trying to make a long term macro prediction in which you are going to sit on risk waiting for a catalyst seems to be counterproductive. However....I would say for...

Yeah I use to think TOS was outrageously overpriced and in terms of margin interest they certainly are but that only applied obviously if you use it. But their all in fee structure in hindsight is not as bad as it looks from a distance. You can cancel orders all you want, trade on any exchange...

Aww shucks Marty...:)

That equity curve is not looking so smooth anymore and to think, the VIX is at 12.42.