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We all breathe a collective sigh of relief, Dawg...

This is the most paradoxical statement I have seen in a while. [B] I can tell you what happens. Assuming drachma is free-floated, it immediately goes to 0.0001 of a Euro and probably stays there for a while. This ain't rocket science. [B] Given that the Greek govt originally issued the...

Argentina was an unmitigated disaster, indeed. Not entirely sure about Ecuador. It was interesting reading the IMF paper on the lessons of Argentina. On the other hand, they seem to have done all right with Turkey. Here's the IMF Staff Report...

HA-HA! This is some priceless sh1t...

I answered this in the edit of my previous post. Specifically, that the IMF, arguably, deserves more faith in these matters than any other body on this planet, given their track record.

The IMF is taking this into account in their proposed timeline for Greek austerity measures. Obviously, reality can always shock the forecasters, but, if I remember correctly, the IMF's numbers are on the pessimistic side. Given that they're the experts at this (or as close to that as we're...

I am willing to give the Greeks and the Eurozone as a whole the benefit of doubt... I think they deserve a fair chance to try to make all the measures work.

I don't think it's really that easy in general, as I have seen these correlation regimes change extremely quickly (in my world it's been happening quite a bit in recent years). However, maybe this works in stocks/indices...

So the trade is based on the correlation between vol and direction, right? Specifically, you're assuming that vol, in the current regime, is likely to come off on a rally and rise on a selloff. Or am I understanding this correctly?

I know some Greek history. I am also reasonably proficient in the use of Google and Wikipedia, thanks... So what exactly are you saying then? I gave you an example of nations that have strong unions that are far less "leftist" than Greece, which means powerful unions don't necessarily...

It's a long litany of factors, starting with Greek history and ending with the poor design and enforcement of the Growth and Stability Pact in recent years. There are solutions and they have been discussed ad nauseam, by various pundits. My favorite commentator, whose views most resemble mine...

It most certainly is, but that was blindingly, painfully obvious well before the bailout. It's like looking at a dismembered corpse and saying that this person's condition is serious. Although, I do hope the Eurozone stages a recovery.

To each their own... I, unfortunately, don't have the luxury of tapping other mkts, as it's not in my mandate. So I have to diversify across time horizons and the macro/RV spectrum. It's been interesting recently, to put it mildly.

Erm, you must be kidding, right?

Ah, flatteners... Very nice! Fundamentally, I think it's the trade to do, pretty much across the world.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm

I am not sure IC has advanced into the realm of binary options yet... I think he's referring to vanilla FX options that you can trade on IG. As he says, they come in a variety of expiries, including IMM. Like yourself, I haven't the slightest clue why he'd want to punt them rather than...

You're trivializing the two main political schools of thought to a ridiculous extent. The way you formulate your question, therefore, is silly. Moreover, your formulation is colored by your very own political doctrine (which you undoubtedly believe is the only right one). Thus, no meaningful...

Firstly, there are countries in Europe that were far more to the left than Greece in the 60s and yet they're not facing the same economic issues. Secondly, Germany, France and the UK all have powerful unions, but I don't see anyone suggesting that these economies have "leftist" issues...

There's no such thing as a "spot forex option". All FX options, by definition, use fwds as underlying.