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Short VX futures as in short the VIX as in short vol. The short vol is the most crowded trade in the world and in fact is the most crowded traded in history.

This is also false. And everyone is doing it. Bobby, you said you were in grad school. May I ask what you are studying?

They are not. VX futures currently has a record short interest. The entire world is short vol.

This is mathematically incorrect. Have you taken any statistics classes? What you are saying and what you mean to say and what you are implying are all categorically false.

That is actually not what you are doing and I suspect you don't understand the math behind your statement.

Correct. After half the pit blew out in 1987 the ones that remained "demanded" a higher risk premium to sell the downside.

This is a terrible way to analyze risk. I hope some of the readers of this thread are learning from this.

I don't think you have analyzed the true source of the p&l. But it doesn't matter. It's your money and I'm beating a dead horse here. I wish it were that easy to just sell risk premia and enjoy the generosity of the market.

But that doesn't mean anything. LOL.

I don't need to sell it to you. It's widely disseminated information in every micro-economics textbook in the country. Or you can believe it's just there for you to take and spend how you please. At the end of the day, people believe what they want to believe to fulfill whatever truth they...

No you are not looking at this right. You have to look at "where" the vix is not simply the number of contracts. What was the level of the VIX in 2013 vs today. What was the liquidity vs today. What was the open interest in the options. Or the SPX. Or the ES. Or the SPY. When you...

Yes, IV contains the implied "forecast" for risk in the future. And that forecast adds an "extra" risk premium to compensate for the uncertainty. It's not just "higher" for the kiddies to splash around with in the pool. You act like that premium is there for the taking. It's there because...

You have the formula wrong. IV should NOT equal HV. IV = HV + risk premium. IV HAS to be higher to offset the risk premia.

I'm not referring to "Wall Street".

No, I trade where there is an edge. I don't blindly sell premium for the positive neurological feedback loop it provides.

Well, the "so be it" part took a lot of guys out in 2008. Funny you should mention insurance companies since many of those that did blow out in 2008, that is what they are doing now, selling life insurance. LOL. And FYI, if the ES gaps down 100 the bid/offer spreads are going to part like...

So be short ES futures. Any non-linear short exposure is going to kill you. There is no way around that.

Bobby, short deltas don't hedge against market drops. Only long gamma does. All the short deltas do is spot you a few bucks at the start.

LOL. This is not going to end well. Record short interest short the VIX.

ACD internals......thousands of stocks.....negative number lines, etc.