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The market operates in a 40 to 60 band. Some traders prefer taking trades on the 60 end as probabilty increases but reward is smaller and risk is greater. This is my preference. But I am a 1 to 4 point scalper in the ES. Other traders prefer to trade on the 40 end. Risk is smaller (if trade is...

The market gravitates towards uncertainty. Uncertainty is 50/50. That means it has a 50% chance of going up x distance as a 50% chance of going down the same distance. The directional probability of an equal move is 50/50 most of the session and on most of the bars. This 50/50 are where bulls...

It is so easier to just dismiss what we don’t agree with as being invalid. But the way life is sometimes we need to hear what we don’t want to hear to accept reality and better ourselves. In other words, sometimes we NEED to be provoked. In communication when a person gets provoked they are...

Hello Drew. How is the landscaping business?

Trading is more about assessing probabilities as opposed to assessing certainties. Interestingly, uncertainty is what gives us those asymmetric opportunities (alluded to by Xela) that can be very profitable. Hence we should embrace uncertainty and not focus on creating certainty (which we...

It could be genuine obtuse distribution..ROFLMAO

“balance of probability” has to do with with standards for proof in a court of law. It is legal terminology and has nothing to do with trading.

Most definitely put me on ignore. I may be quite obtuse.

How do you, as a trader..investor...calculate balance of probability if not by frequency distribution of past trades, price action, and market behaviour?

So there is a false uncertainty and a true uncertainty? False uncertainty would offer true probability? And frequency distribution of past trades cannot indicate future probability? So are we at 50/50 on all trades? Anyone agree? If so, how do we arrive at 50/50? Through a frequency distribution...

So is uncertainty the product of probability or is probability the product of uncertainty?

That would be inserting the psychological strenght or weakness of a trader into the situation. I am referring to the market itself and the benefits/advantages or cons/disadvantages of its leanings for a trader especially in terms of potential profitability.

So, if they lean towards certainty is that good or is that bad for a trader?

Probability could imply both: certainty and uncertainty...to some degree on either.

So, if it leans towards uncertainty is that good or is that bad?

Not sure about that but everything is generally a risk. Getting in your car and driving to the local DQ for an ice cream cone is in itself assuming a risk and eating the cone is too! P.S. uncontrolled trips to DQ can become an addiction..LOL

You seem to be operating off the premise that day trading is difficult and that it is an addiction. Apparently you must have tried it and was unsuccessful at it?? However, the facts are it is generally much easier to anticipate the market 10 minutes out than 6 months out. A body just has to...

Question for all ET’ers on this thread. Do the markets lean towards certainty or uncertainty and whichever one, is that good or is that bad?

LOL...no was not saying that. That is your assumption. However, it is possible that someone else explains things better, but who? Why take the time to go through myriads of books (i have collected piles of books on trading over the years) when all a body needs can be found in his 4 books IMO...

ROFLMAO..his books (all four) are full of brilliance. Get your carcass in gear and study them...LOL.