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Sounds like this paper offers a very legitimate reason for Russia to conduct a military intervention in Ukraine, wouldn't you say?

Well, sire, if this is the case, the American people appear to be well and truly f*cked... To be fair, the four star general in question has been serving in the Air Force for nearly 40 years now. Hopefully, he's a proper career soldier, with no political agenda. Still, I freely admit I don't...

Yep, agreed... As you mention, there are problems that inevitably result from ongoing NATO expansion. Apart from antagonising Russia needlessly, the US is obviously making its "free rider" situation even worse (by committing to defend states that will not be able or willing to contribute...

I could be mistaken, but wasn't the statement about the Russian flights made by the Commander, Pacific Air Forces, rather than the Obama administration spokesperson? Is your opinion of your nation's four star generals so low that you believe that they're, essentially, politicians working for...

Sure, I don't mind and I understand your point... I also agree (as I mentioned on the other thread) that the US shouldn't be getting involved in all sorts of conflicts arnd the world. The problem is that, as a result of disastrous foreign policy decisions, US somehow ends up knee-deep in...

The "invasion" of Crimea, IMHO, is as much the result of misguided American foreign policy as it is of any other factor.

Using the example of NATO offers an easily quantifiable way to tell how the US is getting the short end of the stick by taking on the "world policeman" role (the "free rider" problem in action). According to the NATO charter, member states are supposed to be spending at least 2% of GDP on...

While I am not disagreeing with you, I am sure you're aware of the common problem of using regressions on trending time series. The results are often spurious and don't necessarily indicate a causal relationship, as you mention yourself. More generally, the example of the BoJ would suggest...

I understand re Obama, but I am just very curious about the specific alternatives you could offer. Moreover, if you're of the view (as I am) that the US should generally diminish its enthusiasm for the "world policing" business, isn't inaction the right course?

Sure thing, although the reduction of QE is definitely a fact here and now...

I presume this is simply the function of the Fed buying up pretty much all the agency MBS out there? Otherwise, I don't really get this chart. If this is, in fact, a function of QE, it's certainly not sustainable, but, as we know, QE is ending. The real issue here is the GSE reform...

Whatever, mate... If you wanna get all hot 'n bothered about this, you go right ahead. How do you define "weakness" exactly? If Obama's policies are "weak", what would "strong" alternatives look like?

This is a much more interesting story about highly paid hedge fund managers, IMHO: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-05-08/three-mysterious-philanthropists-fund-fourth-largest-u-dot-s-dot-charity

In this particular case, I believe it is more rational to appear naive than to succumb to groundless paranoia. And, obviously, I don't know with any certainty either and I am happy to acknowledge this.

+1

Could very well be... However, similar to what Lucrum said, until I see positive evidence of an incursion, I have to assume there has been no violation. What would the consequences be if you had your way?

I am assuming that had they violated US airspace the incident would have been a lot more significant. I am also basing this on similar incidents that have been occurring recently arnd UK. Specifically, this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27130125 "The aircraft were subsequently identified...

Like Windlesham alluded to, the price that you pay for the spread vs the spread between the two strikes gives you the odds of "success". Of course, note that "success" here is defined as making the max possible amt on the position, rather than making more than you spent.

The Russian planes in question do not violate US airspace. Incidents like this have occurred recently arnd Scotland as well. This is all about Ukraine.

Long USD has been one of the biggest consensus trades arnd for smth like a year now. Unwinds of these positions represent a significant factor.