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Yes, that's my understanding...

Just because then, for the majority of non-core countries, the cost of remaining in the EMU will exceed the cost of exit.

When Sarkozy said they will be defending the EUR, he didn't actually mean that the EU will be intervening in the FX mkt. What he means is that they will be defending the EMU sovereigns in the CDS/govt bond mkt. Given that is what actually ails the EUR ccy, it should benefit.

Wow, and here I thought that put-call parity was something blindingly obvious, the sort of thing that one learns before one ever starts looking at options. The mind boggles at the actual number of people here claiming that cc's are not the same as naked puts, i.e. that put-call parity doesn't...

Weren't you there Friday? I think things will go badly for the UK if there's uncertainty about the viability and power of the Tory-LibDem coalition (which is entirely possible, given the grassroots origins of the two parties).

Neither, in my view.. Fundamentally, what's most important is the govt bond mkt's perception of the long-term viability of the nation's economy. That's why Ireland has held up relatively well, compared to Spain and Portugal. That said, at the moment the mkt is mostly worried about liquidity...

I am really confused about your post... You begin by applauding Ireland for their efforts and predict that the country will be a "shining star". You then go on to predict the end of fiat money and, if I am not mistaken, suggest that it's what's in store for the EU. But Ireland is part of the...

If you think about it a little bit, you will understand exactly why Switzerland is on this list. Moreover, you will also hopefully understand why this list conveys no useful information whatsoever. It certainly doesn't offer any insight into which economies are healthy and which aren't.

The reason is, ironically, that the only way to defend the EUR, at this point, is to print more of 'em.

debaser, I hope this is true, because, in my view, without prompt decisive action, the EUR experiment is definitely dead (it might be dead anyways, even if there's action). I like the EUR experiment, I think it's a great and hopeful endeavor. I don't want to watch it crumble. Moreover, stocks...

Hope this is true, I do, yes... However, I remember that weekend a short while ago. I really expected Barclays to buy Lehman.

Disagree... Whenever there's a scare that leads to massive repatriation flows, it's not the big players, but the Mrs Watanabe's that are causing it. After all, Mrs Watanabe loves a carry trade, as much as any big money guy - NZDJPY, anyone? - but she really really hates volatility and gets...

atticus is absolutely right, bone... I believe you're perfectly legit and actually have something meaningful and worthwhile to offer. Seems like other serious people also believe that. You should ignore the various loud naysayers, unless they make a specific accusation (which, clearly, is...

Dark pools? There are no dark pools for CDS... CDS's are traded OTC, but pricing is transparent (dealer and 3rd party screens galore) and liquidity is abundant. Markit is the main independent provider of pricing, valuation etc.

http://www.markit.com/cds/cds-page.html

I can confirm the rumor... A typical young Japanese woman is a Westerner's dream. However, the sort of Mrs Watanabe I was referring to is a middle-aged Japanese housewife, so I don't think you should be moving to Japan on her account.

That's because these numbers are a load of bollox... I think I saw something similar once, produced by CNBC, in a blatant attempt at good ol' USA cheerleading (note the conspicuous position of US in the list).

Caveat emptor. These numbers are completely meaningless...

The yen is different, because it's an economy with a large amount of domestic savings and a large number of Mrs Watanabe's, who absolutely love to punt FX in their spare time.

Exhibit A: If you fade it here, you'd be selling at arnd 41.