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  1. M

    how does volatility surface work in market practice

    These models are not particularly useful for punters who are just trading listed products.
  2. M

    Bubble yellen will keep rally going this afternoon! !

    Well, there you have it... Looks like Auntie Janet has disappointed you.
  3. M

    What does Karen the Supertrader and her results say about volatility? Oversold?

    Because there is a liquidity premium component in options. If you're selling options, therefore, your risk adjusted returns will be better than straight equities. This liquidity premium isn't an element of CAPM, or any other such model, which means that your argument about the efficient...
  4. M

    Putin’s Nationalism Vs. Washington’s Blather

    Sure, this makes a whole lot of sense to me... However, how would the American public view this? Do you not think that they would take this unwillingness to get involved as a sign of more weakness? I have seen enough evidence that would suggest that the neocon viewpoint is once again gaining...
  5. M

    What does Karen the Supertrader and her results say about volatility? Oversold?

    Selling insurance and liquidity in a world of finite capital offers edge. I don't think there's any doubt about this. However, the devil, as always, is in the details of the implementation.
  6. M

    Putin’s Nationalism Vs. Washington’s Blather

    I am really curious... What outcome would you expect if America were led by someone who is not a "pussy"?
  7. M

    What does Karen the Supertrader and her results say about volatility? Oversold?

    Haha, no, this colleague of mine was relatively insignificant and the events occurred earlier on, in 2007. The bigger news that followed and that you know about was more of the same, though. Good god, no, although there are parallels, for sure...
  8. M

    Books suggestion on statistical arbitrage

    Read stuff by Ernie Chan. He's got a book and a blog, here: http://epchan.blogspot.co.uk/
  9. M

    What does Karen the Supertrader and her results say about volatility? Oversold?

    Yep, this is correct. Your mark-to-mkt and/or margin will kill ya. This exact thing happened to me in Eurodollars in 2007. Was a small position, in my case, so I could grin and bear it. One of my more senior former colleagues wasn't quite so lucky.
  10. M

    The Holy Grail Of Trading Has Been Found: HFT Firm Reveals 1 Losing Trading Day In 12

    It can vary a LOT... In the settings I have encountered, we're talking about $10 - $50 bucks (mil) for a medium-sized desk per annum as normal. If they make $100 or more, it's an anomaly. If it's a big desk, with a really well-developed franchise, it's an order of magnitude more. Again, I...
  11. M

    The Holy Grail Of Trading Has Been Found: HFT Firm Reveals 1 Losing Trading Day In 12

    In my neck of the woods? Maybe not a whole firm, but individual desks which only engage in mkt making, yes, for sure... If you have a good franchise and/or decent mkt share, you should never lose money. You should never make a lot of money either, unless you start punting, but that's where it...
  12. M

    Treasury Option Flow

    Not sure about tweets, but most brokers are capable of sending this stuff out. The easiest route for you is, surely, to go through your intended clearer.
  13. M

    The Holy Grail Of Trading Has Been Found: HFT Firm Reveals 1 Losing Trading Day In 12

    The real issue with this Virtu shop is this (from their pre-IPO disclosure, as discussed here: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-03-11/high-speed-trader-isn-t-so-good-with-numbers): "we and our independent registered public accounting firm identified a material weakness in our internal...
  14. M

    The Holy Grail Of Trading Has Been Found: HFT Firm Reveals 1 Losing Trading Day In 12

    It's mkt-making, no? If you're just dumbly collecting the bid/ask spread, why would you expect losing days? Again, I am not saying that they are white as the driven snow, but should we be automatically assuming they're guilty?
  15. M

    The Holy Grail Of Trading Has Been Found: HFT Firm Reveals 1 Losing Trading Day In 12

    How do you know that this is specifically true of this particular firm? I mean I get the whole "HFT is evil" theme, but isn't this a case of guilty until proven innocent. Just because they have done well, while their competitors haven't, doesn't mean that they're the devil. I also don't get...
  16. M

    The Holy Grail Of Trading Has Been Found: HFT Firm Reveals 1 Losing Trading Day In 12

    Sorry, I don't get what this is all about... They're a mkt-maker, so why is there an expectation that there should be more losing days? Ah, of course, it's HeroZedge, so I am not too surprised at the breathless tone and the absence of logic...
  17. M

    Martinghoul & the money printers

    I wouldn't be surprised to find out that he's been listening in to my phone calls.
  18. M

    Martinghoul & the money printers

    Well, the fact that you're talking about this speaks volumes, doesn't it? Maybe it's the sort of thing that you would do, but, for me, there's very little incentive to do something like this.
  19. M

    What is the optimum tax rate on the wealthy?

    Tax on the wealthy should not be 0. That's reasonably easy to establish based on some basic modeling of a theoretical economy.
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