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No, there's no way to know the probability of success. The best you can get is the mkt's current guess for this probability. If you're doing a call spread, you don't need no delta. Simplistically, the price of the spread defines the odds.

Deflationary depression? Buy bonds until you can't see straight...

'Cause this guy is a Eurocrat and most relevant to EMU politics, rather than EU. Hence, people in the UK don't really know who he is.

Why on earth should an average Brit recognize Van Rompuy?

I am not trying to suggest that we are somehow generally superior. In some ways, yes, I prefer the British, but in others, it's exactly the opposite.

This IS paranoia.

Indeed, there's them muppets everywhere. And, by the way, I am impressed about how up to date you are with our tabloid stories :). At any rate, all I'm sayin' is that drawing conclusions regarding a man's political convictions based on the art hanging in his home is a rather pointless...

Good lord, no... I am a supporter of the monarchy, generally, and of the Queen, in particular, but I really couldn't give a rat's arse about all the antics of them young 'uns.

Well, thank god that we have Americans developing apps for people to use so that they can avoid bumping into lamp posts... Hasn't occurred to us Brits, 'cause clearly we ain't got enough common sense...

You Americans... Those men and women on them posters are the inventions of an artist's imagination. Do you have to take everything quite so literally?

Well, interestingly enough, the two posters in question depict a Russian man and a Russian woman. According to your variety of common sense, I should be concluding that the family in question happen to like Russian men and Russian women.

I must have missed the piss taking. Maybe it was just too subtle and ironic for poor ole me... But yeah, all this is almost as funny as treating 1920s Soviet propaganda posters (which many consider to be art) as an indication of "undesirable" attitudes. Or giving your political rival a hard...

Firstly, you mean the superiority complex, right? Secondly, no, it doesn't have anything to do with superiority or dental work. It's a result of having a sense of humor and not taking ourselves that seriously. Maybe when/if America has someone like Boris Johnson running for office, you'll...

Comrade Putin appears to be the other way at the moment...

Americans do crack me up sometimes... This is almost as funny as a Newt Gingrich ad implying that Mitt Romney isn't American enough 'cause he speaks French. You can't make this sh1t up.

They both sound like utter douchebags, IMHO...

Impossible to tell, as his strategy was part of a multi-strat fund.

That's not how people in the industry think about this...

Indeed, and maybe one can argue that there are all sorts of positive externalities to law enforcement. Obviously, one man's positive is another man's negative, but that's c'est la vie, as the French would say.

Very well... I can't disagree with this (although hard for me to agree either).