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Curves steepen when markets have gap risk vs simply an expectation of vol going higher. You can think of ATM vol representing the overall expected volatility level and the skew to represent the probability of a large outlier. For example, individual stocks often have huge skews going into...

Coal is a very regional market and controlled by just a few players. Also most of the coal that is traded is longer term contracts. It's a lot like LNG in a way although LNG is becoming more short term oriented and contracts are becoming more shorter in duration.

People in P&R are very friendly and polite and respectful of all views. You will make many life long friends down there. It's really a place to share your views and and be persuaded to change your mind on many topics. If you swear at them they will politely respond back and say they will...

The Brent curve is definitely where the action has been. Bone do you track VLCC transatlantic cargo prices?

NG is very weather driven and the prompt month has to absorb the burden of variation in weather driven demand.

The curves across the entire energy complex are getting steep again which is bearish for flat price. The tell was in the Brent curve that got destroyed while WTI was near $50. Something had to give and that something was the front end of the WTI curve.

I think what you are missing is that a lot of their past growth has come from minimizing tax expense. So the question is, what is their real growth rate? These companies have gotten away with paying almost ZERO tax to grow their earnings. What happens if now they have 25% of that chopped off...

It's over for FANGs. Trump is going to get billions out of the offshore taxes they have been evading.

Copper.....

I had to sell my long NOB into that massive spike. I'm looking to buy it back soon. The curve is not suppose to trade like FB. LOL. I think longer term this trade is only just beginning.

We bounced off the QTR A down in the Dow and closed at all time highs in the same day! ACD on steroids.

Houston...we have a problem. UNG almost at all time lows.

The LA Times was consistently right the entire election cycle giving Trump about a 2pt margin. This weekend I might do a writeup explaining how the data analysts got this election so wrong and how it relates to ACD.

Guys...it's over. Trump is going to win this.

Here we go guys...

This is starting to look like Brexit.

Nothing Can Stop This!

I think you need to be flexible. There is no one answer. I do know that just limiting yourself to intra-day makes you very vulnerable to variance. And there is no real way to hedge that. For a longer term trader, the variance actually benefits you. So I think you need to do both. Larger...

Coal new highs today...