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I dispute that there exists a substantial and meaningful population of “average intra day traders” - beyond ‘new’ money. They’re on the endangered species list.

You are definitely on the path to enlightenment. Trading is very difficult and extremely competitive. I know that what I am saying will be controversial, but I think it has to be said: why try and compete with automated trading firms that spend many millions of dollars per year on ECN speed...

I was referring to days - but even hours would be better than scalping the damned thing. I would say even if you could take only 2 or 3 really well set up trades per day - that would be a better risk vs reward skew than scalping. (Unless you have automation and a very expensive ECN. But...

Nope. The higher the correlation between products the lower the volatility. Arbitrage between highly correlated products keeps the short term volatility down but longer term trend movements persist.

I've been doing client work since 2008. Been trading since 1994. In the pits, commercial desk, hedge fund desk, proprietary firms, my own account. Started electronically with Globex and Project A in 1996, and was in the first wave of Chicago traders on the Deutsche Termina Borse (now Eurex)...

No doubt that Putin is using this opportunity to squeeze US fracking. But these OPEC 'price wars' never pan out and they are never sustained - 1973 Arab Oil Embargo withstanding.

That’s actually dead nuts on. Also, if perchance some percentage of US oil rigs shut down due to cheap Saudi and Russian imports - that will decrease domestic US gas output at precisely the time that US power generation has switched from coal to NG.

2008 Global Financial Crisis reforms have made banks more risk averse. Which means the Fed is going to have to take up the slack. Which they've found out. The hard way.

Look at where the actual Bank Reserves were in September of 2019. (Hint: they were very low and fixed income dealers had been warning the Fed about the lack of securities liquidity for months)

SOFR has been going down as of late. https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/treasury-repo-reference-rates

specifically, where on Earth did you get that idea ?

If you are a bank and you want to borrow overnight on the Repo market - you have to post US sovereign debt as collateral. That's the basis for the Repo agreement. Pretty tough for a bank to borrow on the Repo market when the Federal Reserve is holding a big chunk of the securities required for...

What was the US Federal Reserve buying en masse during QE-1, QE-2, and QE-3 ??

Yaaaaasss this is all about inserting Putin's nuts into a large vise. Aramco called up the European consumption desks within an hour of the conclusion of the OPEC meeting and offered cash spot Saudi crude immediately at a crazy severe discount to Brent and Russian stocks. Like $8 under spot...

No, not really because Saudi crude is Sour (high sulfur content) and, as you suggest, requires more catalytic cracking capacity. And there's the tanker rates to contend with. But at a certain price inflection point it would certainly make its way there. Saudi oil finds its way to Europe and...

The US government caused the Repo liquidity crunch via Quantitative Easing and they can damned well fix it. The Repo situation has virtually nothing in common with MBS. What this is really about is that the commercial banks need more short to mid term US sovereign debt in the banking system...

Bull on several fronts. Firstly, Producers hedge themselves. I guarantee you that quite a few producers are short calendar strips - especially given how shaky the market has been since late January. Second, as I mentioned previously, producers already are subsidized via the MLP partnership...

Shale producers already get tax break incentives via the MLP partnership structure.

In America, if you show up to any Hospital Emergency Room, you will get treatment regardless of your insurance status or ability to pay. In fact it is a Federal Law called the Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act. In fact, the Hospital can be sued for refusing to treat you. In...

There are really only a handful of worthwhile government functions that have a direct and meaningful impact on our civilization, our society, and our welfare. Disaster response and disease prevention/mitigation are two of them.