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2990.75 was HOD for ES today.

1) Fed speak 2) MSFT earnings beat Lots of action from 4:00 to 4:15pm....and the 4:30 re-open as well.

Amen to this thought. Anyone feel this market has been "rigged" ? LOL !!!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/traders-see-50-chance-of-half-point-rate-cut-in-july-after-feds-williams-remarks-2019-07-18?mod=mw_latestnews Ah, this is just another Fed day......so no surprise for the price action. When is the Fed going to get out of the market ? Answer: NEVER. Bears...beware.

10 am to noon today was an excellent move down....hardly any retracements. Unusual.

I am going to try to revisit this system in Multicharts using only SPY and QQQ going back to 1999 ...and add a trend overlay to see if the performance can be improved by going short the close in bear markets or in significant down-trends. Because of transaction costs, I don't see the value of...

Thanks for that Ph1l - I am not sure about that formula. Shouldn't it be : today_open_price/ prev_close_price - 1 ?? Horrible value for Sharpe, but then again this is a "stupid" system that always goes long....so no surprise there. The system badly needs a proxy for detecting a bull / bear...

They sure make a cool graphical presentation....but how do you use them all ?

Yes, I got so PO'd, I sold 6 NQ contracts to reverse my losing long position. Thus, the revenge trade. Luckily it worked out.

Super frustrating day......top ticked on my stop losses multiple times. Stop losses obviously too tight for today's volatility.

Good move....3:42 PM was a slick stop takeout for weak shorts. Straight down from there on ES.

3004.50 painted at 12:20 pm. You were early.

Yes, my bad. I was thinking of the bear market scenario....LOL. This system obviously needs some tweaks and enhancements. Always buying the close is stupid IMHO. So how to filter these entries is the big question....50 Day MA/200 Day MA crossover?

Guys - you are missing the point. This simple system is a hold-overnight approach that doesn't take bull or bear markets into consideration. That may be it's one weakness. Otherwise, the equity curve is not bad at all....even with this limitation. You sell at the RTH close and buy at the next...

The comment was not relevant to the system in the studies.....that's all.

Tom - thanks for the response but you gotta back-up your assertions with statistics as was done in article #2. That article likely took over 5 man-years of effort. Thoughts are one thing.....research is entirely different. I'll go with the research every time.

Dude - the statistical evidence is overwhelming....the academic study (article 2) proved that. What they failed to do is create a Sharpe Ratio for the final equity curve result. Article 1 also fails in that regard. Still, it's hard to ignore this concept. It just needs to be enhanced with...

Short selling tough these days.....low percentage win rate. I can't believe I missed that 1 pm rally....that was a nice move up. Why am I always thinking short ?

Mostly short today.