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I know an investor which got started around the same time QE started and literally became rich throughout the last decade. I later saw a webinar with a guy utilizing the exact same strategy which got hammered starting out a few years prior. Same strategy, different market environment...

The point was that at any point in time someone could dump an order at the market for reasons that have nothing to do with what's going on in a <= 5-minute chart. I believe that's what happened leading up to the Flash Crash. So, in essence, trying to make a meaning out of every single tick or...

You seem to be making up your own definitions. I dump 1000 ES contracts at market for the purpose of hedging my portfolio. I don't use charts. I don't use patterns. That action will cause a random (unpredictable) spike down as there is nothing to warn about my actions, but price will likely...

Of course there is noise. If the market moves from A to B, say 20 points, we could simplify and say that every random oscillation on that path is noise. If I dump 1000 contracts at market between A to B, I will cause a random and unpredictable down move which will quickly self correct. An...

Of course there's always a reason why price moves. Do you think even the academics believe otherwise? Now, predicting price moves is a completely different matter. Just because a transaction takes place that causes price to move a certain way does not mean it's predictable.

My view is that prices are periodically random and periodically predictable. And generally, predicting the big picture, i.e., today will be up or down, is more predictable than predicting the micro (which is more subject to random price oscillations). And I don't need anyone to agree or...

Buy dips; sell rips. What could be easier? :)

To be clear, my speciality is ES and I rate myself to be fairly good at it having spent a huge amount of time and effort to get there. So, it's not like I'm saying it can't be done, but I did say that I agree with what the OP said, i.e., it's not for inexperienced traders. You really have to...

Would it be rude to ask what your results are trading ES? If I recall correctly, you were talking about needing to go back to the drawing board not that long ago as you lost money day trading index futures. Forgive me if my memory is off and I'm mixing you up with some other member. Anyway, I...

Contrary to what I'm sure most people believe, trend days up frequently don't see continuation higher.

So, what usually happens after a trend day up...?

I'm not sure how to explain it any better than I already did. US index futures are very popular and liquid markets for multiple reasons. Keep in mind that a huge amount of the volume in US index futures is not from outright speculation, but arbitrage between the cash index, SPY, etc. Of course...

I'm not sure you quite understand what's meant by being a competitive market. In a market such as ES which there are hundreds if not thousands of strategies (manual and algorithmic both) being employed simultaneously with trading decisions being made for a wide variety of...

Market efficiency / competition. Short term day trading, yes. Medium/long term is different and I imagine most people would prefer other vehicles than stock index futures for such strategies.

The cost of trading is small for a reason. No, that's not how I interpreted the OP. Stock indices easier compared to what exactly? In theory, the easiest market would be very directional going from A to B in a linear fashion with zero noise. In practice, stock index futures are very...

The OP is of course right. Day trading index futures is for expert traders; not for newbies. Arguably, any type of active trading is for experts. Now, the key to trade any market is of course to trade it how it is. Not how you wish it to be. On the day trading time frame, index futures...

You lost me there, buddy. I'll check in again at the end of January.

You haven't provided any argument for why my prediction is unlikely, nor have you made any predictions yourself. 4550 isn't even a 5 % correction from here. It can very easily happen.

Are you from Finland? I visited Helsinki a few weeks ago. Lovely city. I see several factors suggesting down is the more likely scenario from here. For one, it was a weak opening of the year. Further, this leg up exceeds the average leg higher for the last few years suggesting a correction...

Why?