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Yeah, and, like I said, it's not his picks that I'd be concerned about. Absolutely, emphatically yes to your question. Statistically speaking, you need a much longer sample to argue for presence of skill. Given the sort of things I have observed during my time in the industry, I can tell you...

Well, firstly, I don't buy this argument at all, since even the cleverest of people, all those lawyers and experts and specialists, occasionally turn out to be wrong. Paulson with his unmatched resources invested in Sino Forest; Ackman in JCP; Eddie Lampert in Kmart; etc. Warren Buffett piled...

Sure thing, although, honestly, I have absolutely no idea why you would rely on other peoples' views in your thesis. I mean look at the bank analysts. They possibly have even more access to management than the investors (with maybe the exception of ValueAct and Pershing). How did they do...

They are, actually... They're called US Treasury Securities.

Well, I have made my feelings on Ackman known, so... Best of luck!

I said volatility, not the underlying, is mean reverting, Captain D'oh!... Nice picture, though!

You're mostly correct. As to your questions, think about it this way... Disclaimer: this is a perspective of a gamma trader in my world, so take with a pinch of salt. Firstly, when if you delta-hedge in the real world you need to make discretionary decisions about when and how much delta to...

Not sure I agree with that... Here's the relevant indenture: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/885590/000119312515109400/d900048dex41.htm My read of it (section 4.3) is that they're in default, but they have a 60 day grace period to cure it.

Well, as newwurldmn mentioned, there is some evidence to suggest that volatility is mean reverting (in fact, that's what many popular stoch vol models, such as Heston, are based on). If you believe this, you're much more likely to sell lower if you buy high.

Study away, my young and turbulent friend... My comment was meaningless, since, in the past, when myself and other people offered you meaningful advice, you refused to listen. So you really have to learn by doing stuff yourself, which is exactly what I stated.

You have much to learn, Grasshopper...

Really? So you like buying expensive options?

Yeah, like I said, you go to Nomura and UBS, 'cause their analysts' price targets on VRX were the highest at the time.

I dunno... The increase of his stake showed up in 13D/A. The description of the options trades was in the Exhibit 99.5. I am getting this from the footnotes in Matt Levine's article.

Nothing, mate. I'm afraid I can't talk about it any more...

It's a govt conspiracy, mate... The Man has erased the article.

Here: http://www.hardenedstructures.com/bunkers-for-Sale.php Looks pretty reasonable to me.

Yeah, I certainly am not arguing about your VRX view. Ackman had to disclose the increase in his stake in the 13D anyways, it seems... I am not sure what the difference might be, if any. Moreover, he previously stated that the fund was fully invested and couldn't buy more VRX outright. HLF...

So I have been thinking about it and I have to say it... This is probably going to offend some, but so be it. So I don't want to comment on Ackman's outright VRX bet. I am not an expert at the strategy ostensibly used there. In the past, while I didn't particularly fancy Ackman's publicity...

Well, look on the bright side, at least he wasn't too greedy and didn't do the seagull for credit :).