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  1. M

    Risk (pain) vs Reward (gain)

    You need a better, more specific definition of "optimality". What you're possibly looking for is an inflection point, I guess. Until you hit that point, for every incremental increase in risk, your increase in reward is bigger than the previous iteration. That is "optimal" could be the point...
  2. M

    Do large banks and institutions use TA to profit?

    Like I said, that's utter bullsh1t... I can't and don't use charts, never used them and probably never will. However, mysteriously, I am still around, even though, according to your bonkers theory, I don't have the intelligence to make money anŷ other way. Seriously, when will all this...
  3. M

    Brexit

    Erm, you might wanna check your arithmetic...
  4. M

    A New Options Trader's Worry

    To be sure, their aggressive strategy had, what, smith like 75% drawdown in 2008. And then arnd 45% in 2011. That's what you need to think about before heading your money over, I imagine.
  5. M

    A New Options Trader's Worry

    Yes, as I understand it, LJM's specialty is, basically, systematically selling vol. They have several different strategies with different tolerances. As to myself, I obviously don't work for LJM and the stuff I do is very different. Since my core methodologies are inherently short vol, I am...
  6. M

    A New Options Trader's Worry

    Like I mentioned before, there is no clear division between who the natural sellers and buyers of options are. Most professionals would buy and/or sell, depending on circumstances and their strategy. For instance, I never sell options, because my core strategy is implicitly short vol. Retail...
  7. M

    A New Options Trader's Worry

    Leaving aside my first question for now, here's one way for you to get into options properly. Imagine you're doing due diligence on a trade that you like that doesn't involve options. Examining scenarios, considering the risks and rewards, etc. To get yourself into the right frame of mind...
  8. M

    A New Options Trader's Worry

    I dunno, try anything and everything, be patient and you'll find something that works? Think of it this way... There is no free lunch, there is no magical strategy that is better than all others. There's just hard work that, with time and effort, will hopefully allow you to slowly raise your...
  9. M

    A New Options Trader's Worry

    Well, firstly, stop worrying about it... As cdc stated, there are all sorts of mkt participants doing things for all sorts of reasons, with vastly different time horizons. The reason why there's a counterparty to your trade is that there is a particular group who has a very specific mandate to...
  10. M

    A New Options Trader's Worry

    You're thinking about it wrong...
  11. M

    Do large banks and institutions use TA to profit?

    There are all sorts of people, doing all sorts of things at banks/institutions. Some of those people will use TA, others won't. What sort of a silly discussion is this?
  12. M

    Deutsch Bank

    Oh, FFS... 1) Yes, Douche Bank has a very large derivatives book 2) As I have said, I dunno how many times before, its notional doesn't tell you a lot 3) Fundamentally, DB has been hit by a few issues, which different banks, at one time or another, experienced. The problem for DB is that, for...
  13. M

    Simply amazing....all it took was minutes, the next rate hike is now pushed back into September

    There is definitely a bit of that. It's all intertwined. As to the international situation, that definitely has a large effect, as various Fed people have admitted.
  14. M

    Options pricing model

    You need to relax the underlying distribution assumptions. Unfortunately, that immediately makes any such "solution" vastly inferior to Black-Scholes due to its analytical and computational complexity. However, there are lots and lots of things that people have come up with. Various jump...
  15. M

    anyone here trade an OTC market which isn't FX

    To some extent, but these sorts of Wild West days are mostly behind us... Used to be a "license to kill" back in the day, but even that is fraught with lawsuits, years later. There really mostly is no free lunch, especially now... Maybe in some cross-asset exotics...
  16. M

    anyone here trade an OTC market which isn't FX

    Yeah, what exactly are you looking for?
  17. M

    Bond Profit Calculation Help needed please .....

    No, the point value of a two year note is $2000 (http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/us-treasury/2-year-us-treasury-note_contract_specifications.html)
  18. M

    Bond Profit Calculation Help needed please .....

    I think you guys are falling victim to the whole decimal vs 1/32 convention. If your prices are decimalised, which appears to be the case (i.e. price looks like 129.10 and not 129-10 and you can't have prices like 129-39), you haven't made 29 "ticks" worth $15.625 (you've made 29/100s, not...
  19. M

    Trading Volatility

    Well, free lunches don't really exist in mkts, no matter what our turbulent friend botpro imagines... What you need to do is start from a different angle. While options are "fairly" priced, you don't necessarily have to agree with this pricing. You may have a subjective view that...
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