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It depends...

How long are people going to keep talking about notionals?

I know an actual practitioner who has taken it and found it quite useful. To him, it was a useful and relatively time-effective way to get more rigorous with the maths behind the intuition. If you look on NucPhy, however, you will find a few unflattering comments, but be aware that peeps there...

Yep, filthy's book is really good. Point is that he's talking about trading volatility, rather than delta. If you know how to forecast volatility (GARCH being an example of a very basic methodology), you can express a view.

Given Sprott's well-advertised positions, I would be inclined to take his conspiracy theories with a grain of salt. He's talking his book, regardless of what the truth might be.

It's whatever you're charting...

I think the OP is confusing corp and govt bonds... Corp bonds are risky. Why would you want to buy a risky asset during a panic?

nel-san, with all due respect, you still don't get it... Here's what I am saying, in simplest terms. Suppose I want to be long 10y. I can recv fixed on a 10y swap, which will require no cash up front, as you correctly point out. Alternatively, I can buy 10y on-the-runs, in which case I...

Just out of curiosity, what would be my upside in stating that I am a pro (assuming I am one, of course)? What would that achieve? How will it help me? Conversely, of what value is this information to you?

I can do any fwd, in any sector of the curve, using cash bonds with appropriately-weighted notionals. If I can then lend and borrow in the repo mkt, I will be able to get any duration I want without a significant cash outlay, just like I can do with swaps. As I keep saying, you're not...

danger and TZ are absolutely right. The OP needs more education and experience to understand what metrics actually measure, how they are used and what their caveats are. Until understanding of the above issues (as well as survivorship bias) arrives, it's beyond silly to keep insisting that...

Sorry, nel-san, I think there's actually a misunderstanding... I wasn't explaining what I meant clearly enough. When I say repos, I am describing their use when you own the underlying bond and lend it out in the repo mkt. In such circumstances, repos have relatively negligible interest rate...

Whoa, m8, you're very very wrong here. I guess you're talking about the rate risk of the term repo here, but that's irrelevant... The repo cashflows have nothing to do with the bond cashflows. Suppose I buy 100mm of the current 30y and I lend it out O/N. What do you think happens to my PNL...

I don't understand this... The duration of my bond position doesn't depend on the term of my repos. Point is that, if I have repo lines, and I buy a 30y bond, I can lend it out and thus get my duration for 0 (or close to 0, depending on the haircut) cash, just like with the swaps.

It's related to the various phenomena discussed here (exotics hedging flows, etc): http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=112244&perpage=6&pagenumber=290

You might be a wee bit late to this party. There's been some rallying going on recently (20bps in the past 5 days). You can look for 90-day bank bill futures (Aussie equivalent of Eurodollars). There's an options mkt for these, if memory serves, although liquidity ain't anything to write...

Well, in a cash-constrained world buying bonds without repo lines is very hard, while swaps are easy. If you have repo lines, buying bonds is not hard at all, even under relatively cash-constrained conditions.

Well, firstly, US has, on the whole, a lot more TIPS outstanding than UK has of IL gilts, so it's not just the UK. Secondly, even though I am normally not a conspiracy theorist, I do believe that statistics agencies will do what has to be done, when needs must. Some say that the Japanese...

While there was a bit of that (similar phenomenon was occurring in the GBP mkt, where Leh was quite big), this was a relatively short-lived effect. It doesn't take much for a real-money account to set up repo lines with their swap cpties, which would allow them to do their duration via cash...

Misthos, I just read your last post... With all due respect, I disagree with you. Unfortunately, I can't respond properly, as I am very busy. I may not be able to converse as actively going fwd, either. I do apologize. I mean no disrespect.