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I think you're confusing mathematics with basic arithmetic... Don't you think it's a bit presumptious to call yourself a mathematician? Andrew Wiles is a mathematician, Grisha Perelman is a mathematician, but you ain't one and neither is anyone else in the mkt for that matter (quants and PhDs...

Search for 'technical analysis' here and ye shall find: http://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/

Silly, silly me... Whatever led me to the erroneous conclusion that this thread (on a trading forum, no less) was about Iceland? How could I be so misguided? I should have realized that all along it was all about spam filters... DUH!!!!!!

Don't get me started on the Greek situation... It's a LOT more involved and f*cked up, that's for sure.

This ain't too nice either (might be a warning shot across the bows, for all I know): http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a2l2G2C_QmCk

It seems that Iceland's president has changed his mind now: http://www.dail*****.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1241324/Iceland-honour-obligations-2-3bn-lost-British-savers-Landsbanki-collapsed.html (like with everything else coming from UK tabloids, take with a pound of salt) EDIT: Replace...

I think you need to read a bit more about the EU depositor protection regulations that Iceland agreed to and signed into national law, only to renege when they found that it's too difficult to pay the claims of British and Dutch creditors. Are you suggesting that it's OK for Iceland to avoid...

Thank you, scriabin... I never did a CFA. To be honest, I never really wanted to know any of this. Myself and many other people thought that the money mkts were a sleepy boring place where nothing ever happened and things just sorta hummed along. However, when the world went to hell in 2007...

I agree... He's made himself a laughingstock by making his ridiculous assertion.

Understood, you used ABS in a collective sense. That's confusing, as it's not what's normally used in the mkt (ABS and MBS normally are used to refer to two very different asset classes), but that's fine. I'll stop being a pedantic ninny, if you promise to stick to conventions. The Fed is...

Huh? I am somewhat shocked at your ignorance. Information on the Fed QE programs is publicly available, so why not avail yourself of it and clear up your misconceptions... The Fed is buying Agency MBS (not ABS) from the mkt. The rules that govern the process (conducted by two external...

I could, but there are eloquent accounts from better writers than myself that I think accurately describe what happened. The famous 'Wall St on the Tundra' article by Michael Lewis (which I am sure you have read already) is quite good at disecting the crisis. If you want the account of the...

Inflationary recession, my ass... Have you ever been to pre-crisis Iceland? Do you know what it takes to bring an Icelander out on the street (we're talking about 1% - 2% of the country's total population; think about this for a second) to participate in an actual riot, with tear gas...

+1... There's all kinds of easy ways to show that the only meaningful way to substantiate a specific statement is by offering direct evidence. Plausible != true.

Well, if a eightfold rise in the unemployment rate doesn't convince you, I don't really know what will... Maybe you wanna read about the Kitchenware or 'saucepan' Revolution (Búsáhaldabyltingin). While reading, do remember that Icelandic people are not known for their tempers...

Huh? Let's just see, shall we? Unemployment rate: 2007 - 1%, 2009 - 8% Average inflation: 2007 - 5%, 2009 - 12% Sovereign rating: 2007 - Aaa/AA/AA+, 2009 - Baa3/BBB+/BBB+ (that's below i-g; Moody's/S&P/Fitch LT local ccy debt ratings). ISK trade-weighted: 2007 - 111, 2009 - 220 (ISK per...

I think you have this all wrong, guys... Iceland is f*cked, really f*cked. They simply have nothing to lose at this point (except, of course, the IMF lifelines and what little remains of their credibility; see how they immediately got downgraded, as soon as the news came out). That's the...

BoJ routinely buys stocks, the SNB and the BoE buy corporate bonds in their mkts. So it's not like there's this massive taboo against CBs buying private sector assets. Why would it be such a wrong thing to do for the Fed? Moreover, wouldn't govt buying of equity indices be just a wee little...

Great idea, crgarcia... Pls keep selling. Make sure those puts are cheap. Sell the outstrikes, while you're at it. You'll have to do a lot, but that shouldn't be an issue for a big boy like yourself.

Lots of research on the subject and you can google it. No single answer. For standard GARCH, it's probably good to have arnd 1000 samples or more... Less might be needed for GJR-GARCH or other flavors.