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I lied, ammo, sorry... I didn't check properly. There are still 3s, 10s and 30s priced to go this week (3s happening today). Sorry about that, I should have been more careful.

Aha, now we're getting into the issues with the zero bound, but you should realize that it's a red herring. After all, the real argument you're making is not for +/- 100% or 200% moves, but rather for +/- epsilon, where epsilon tends to 0. You shouldn't confound the issues of the zero bound...

Actually, Bernanke has spoken a few times about "leaning against asset bubbles". However, if my recollection is correct, his conclusion is that mkt prices are right and the best way to address bubbles is through regulation, rather than monetary policy.

You're taking two independent outcomes A and B that don't "span" the probability space and pretend they do... That's why, I think, you're getting positive expected value no matter what happens. If you were to try outcomes A) EURUSD rises 100%; and B) EURUSD falls 100%, and assume those are...

Hmmmm, you might be correct and I might be either an arrogant f*ck or just simply that good. As I recall, I think I actually have admitted being in error a couple of times. I assure you I have no problem with that, so I don't think I am an arrogant f*ck. But, then again, I would say that...

Indeed, but you can probably say the same about News of the World and National Enquirer (apologies to any avid readers). It's all a matter of signal to noise ratio and ZH doesn't quite do it for me. [B] Your sarcasm (if such it is) is uncalled for, Ivan. It's one thing to offer...

I have no idea where they're getting their 52% from... Here's what their own calculations show. Moreover, that would agree more with the Cleveland Fed's numbers, although they don't go as far as the Sep meeting.

The auctions are never over, these days... Next time, it's the 2s, 5s and 7s (and 5y TIPS) on the week of the 26th.

That can't be right... There's no way that Sep funds are implying a 52% probability of a hike. I see smth like 35%, from 25% a week ago.

Here's another pearl of wisdom from ZH that someone pointed out to me on another forum: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/treasury-bund-spread-surges-over-three-year-wides Surely, given ZH's expertise, he should know that Apr 5th is also a holiday in EUR, which means that Bunds weren't...

It's bollox... I didn't get any further than this glaring fallacy right here: "Let’s assume that we don’t know anything about the future price movements. This means that for us an increase of 100% in eur/usd (A) is as likely as an increase of 100% in usd/eur (B). But B is the same as a...

Oh no, I would have thought people here don't like Ayn Rand anymore, given that her biggest fan and disciple has been discredited so soundly... At any rate, I don't see the relevance of this, given: a) oaths the medical professionals swear and the resulting rules that they follow are...

Erm, did I say anything to this effect? Why do you feel the need to comment on something I didn't either say or imply? The fact is simply that the Soviet authorities were successful in dealing with epidemics of infectious diseases, such as anthrax, plague, smallpox and cholera, that...

I disagree... I don't listen to pundits, but I always want to use my own analytical faculties to understand why. Without knowing the answer to this and two other relevant questions, I would never enter a position.

Yes, I understand the argument, but it's completely wrong...

True, it hasn't, not yet anyways... However, you know what they say about desperate times? All it takes is a decision by Attorney General's office and you probably would have a hard time appealing it, given you won't have access to a US court.

Given that you (and many others here, incl myself) are likely to be hanging up there with them politicians, I struggle to understand why you're so gleefully looking forward to these things... Don't think your weapons and farmland are gonna help, either, Ivan...

I accept the correction for 2. I should have been more precise and mentioned that there are rules regarding exemptions etc. You're incorrect on 3. A former US citizen is subject to immigration laws of the US same as any other alien (with a special exception for citizens who renounced before...

1) Depends on where you live 2) Currently, USA is one of only two countries in the world that taxes its citizens/permanent residents, regardless of where they reside. So yes, if you're a US citizen residing abroad, you will be taxed by both the country in which you reside, as well as the US of...

Don't be silly (and that applies particularly to the other poster, who so liked the idea of swearing by the ancient Greek pantheon)... Obviously, doctors don't swear the ancient version of the Hippocratic Oath these days. This is the Declaration of Geneva, from which my excerpt was taken...