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The goal is to avoid a liquidity crisis in Greece that can quickly turn into a Leh-like event. The idea is, once liquidity issues are out of the way, solvency issues can be addressed in due course. Whether that actually happens is an entirely different question.

This was being discussed at length and that's exactly why it's taking so long... At the moment, it seems like they're proceeding with it, in spite of a variety of opinions that question whether it's constitutional. As I understand it, the public is, by and large, not against it, if it's...

This is proper comedy. You can't make up sh1t like that. 15:29 EURO ZONE FINANCE OFFICIALS REACH DEAL ON TERMS OF POSSIBLE LOANS TO GREECE - EU SOURCE 15:31 *FITCH DOWNGRADES GREECE TO 'BBB-'; OUTLOOK NEGATIVE

EURO ZONE FINANCE OFFICIALS REACH DEAL ON TERMS OF POSSIBLE LOANS TO GREECE - EU SOURCE INTEREST RATES ON LOANS TO GREECE "ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF IMF TERMS" - EU SOURCE

His screenshots are all weird, to put it mildly... The first one is a generic BBG one, where it all depends on what your setup designates as a default price source. Mine shows something very different. The second one makes no sense whatsoever, 'cause he's looking at a bill that matures on...

Something just out that sez it's been agreed... Greece, I mean, and it's not official, just some report by a consultancy.

Is it ZH's job description to sit there staring at Greek bills, noticing every single tick in BBG, and crying "Wolf!" every time it looks interesting? For the record, I see a 6%/7% mkt (aggregate from a bunch of dealers; not great and it's a lot tighter on MTS) in the Jul Greek T-bill. I can...

My personal view, and keep in mind that I am often wrong, is that, once things settle down and everyone deals with their issues, it would actually be a positive for the mkt. If I were a dealer, I think I'd welcome this in the long run.

Sell Greek bank stocks? Sell the Greek index? My point is that, in general, in any govt bond mkt, failing to deliver a bond is considered to be a bad and disruptive thing, both by the authorities and the mkt participants. Different mkts across the world address these issues in different...

I have already admitted in an earlier post that I was wrong and apologized. This is an interesting subject and I am trying to help myself understand it. If you don't want to, it's fine with me.

If you're referring to the raw coin flip game, you're right. However, sambian's strategy structures it further using the Kelly bit, the parameters of which he can tweak at will. That makes sure he doesn't get into the whole "gambler's suicide" trap.

Why are you not willing to put up more? Doesn't that imply that the expected value of this game isn't quite what it seems?

Well, not quite... Let's say you sold some treasuries. That means you need to deliver the bond to the buyer at settlement (T+1). That can happen in one of two ways: either you own it to begin with or you borrow it in the repo mkt (by doing a reverse repo).

Seriously, asiaprop, I think this actually turned out to be a pretty interesting subject. It's got the geek in me all hot 'n bovvered, that's for sure. sambian, are you going to answer my question? If not, can you just tell me how much money you're willing to put up to play the game? Will...

Nah, it's actually more subtle than that, because, for any given counterexample you provide, sambian will be able to tweak the parameters of his strategy that will still make it outperform. Problem, of course, is that it requires the same forward insight that is the stumbling block for all...

There's a thread on NucePhy discussing this at length. As I said, this turned out to be a gem of a subject, for which I am very grateful to sambian. http://www.nuclearphynance.com/Show%20Post.aspx?PostIDKey=67428

Actually, sambian, regardless of whether you're happy to answer my question (I hope you are), I have to apologize to you and admit that I initially behaved like a famous idiot. I dismissed your idea (which is still erroneous) for all the wrong reasons. The subject that you have stirred up is...

Sure thing, I will... Let me ask you first, though. What do you think happens when you short-sell a govt bond? Have you ever tried doing this as a retail customer of a brokerage, say?

No!!!!! This is completely and utterly wrong. Pls, I beg you, do refrain from making silly statements like this, as you don't understand how repos work.

It's pure scaremongering, IMO. And I am one of those bad people who is very pessimistic regarding Greece's prospects, so you'd expect me to cry foul and accuse the authorities of manipulation. However, it's not the case. I can go into the gory technical details if you like, but it'll have...