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  1. M

    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    Agree with GoC on most of what he said (I didn't read everything properly, though), which is why I have so many flatteners on, I can't see straight. There are some creative ways to do 'em to avoid negative rolldown. In USD, I just don't see any runaway inflation, sovereign default or any...
  2. M

    GReek Ratios

    minj, I can't give you good answers, since your questions are about equities, about which I know very little... In general, in the world of options, the thing you care about is not so much theta/gamma per se (as this ratio is easy to calculate and is implied in a simple fashion from...
  3. M

    Calculating The Greeks

    I think MasterAtWork answered this already... If you're using mkt prices and intend to use your greeks to make trading decisions and explain the pnl on your marked-to-mkt positions, you have to use market implied vols. There can be no alternative... If, on the other hand, you're a real...
  4. M

    Calculating The Greeks

    Let me ask you this, stoic... Do you believe mkt prices are meaningful and, as a consequence, mark-to-mkt your positions?
  5. M

    GReek Ratios

    Theta/gamma is obviously meaningful... Wouldn't think you could say the same about vega/delta and many others.
  6. M

    Too Big to Fail is a MYTH.

    I disagree with many of your conclusions, achilles, but what else is new... It's boring to go into detail again, so I won't do it. At any rate, your calculations take place in a counterfactual universe, so it's all sorta moot.
  7. M

    Calculating The Greeks

    Do you want a set of historical or market-implied Greeks? I am only half-kidding...
  8. M

    Greek Bailout Same as Subprime Lending

    Yep, agreed... No, as the European experience has amply demonstrated... However, I have a lot more sympathy for the Irish and the Spaniards, who seem to be willing to acknowledge that a) some of the responsibility was, in fact, theirs; b) their citizenry reaped the various benefits during...
  9. M

    Greek Bailout Same as Subprime Lending

    I certainly don't think it's that simple, Ed... Firstly, didn't you define insolvency as the inability of the sovereign to roll its debt at a reasonably sustainable rate? If Ireland is able to fund itself at 2.5%, while Greece is struggling to get anything at 7%, how can you refer to them as...
  10. M

    Greek Bailout Same as Subprime Lending

    Well, being devil's advocate again here, the IMF would say that the only reason the EM world finds itself in such a strong, competitive and relatively unleveraged position is the IMF involvement. At any rate, I don't necessarily disagree with you. I just like to be clear on the various...
  11. M

    Anybody else short US 30 Bond

    Nah, it's the Greeks and BlackRock...
  12. M

    Greek Bailout Same as Subprime Lending

    I disagree and offer you the South Korean devaluation of 1997 as a counterexample. Seems to have worked out quite nicely for them, in the end, what with GDP per capita more than doubling in the following 10 years.
  13. M

    Greek Bailout Same as Subprime Lending

    BTW, here's another nice summary on the situation from Simon Johnson: http://baselinescenario.com/2010/04/13/greek-bailout-lehman-deceit-and-tim-geithner/
  14. M

    Greece to make bond shorting illegal??

    Try www.pdma.gr
  15. M

    Greek Bailout Same as Subprime Lending

    In and of itself, it's perfectly acceptable. What everyone is afraid of is a Lehman-like scenario, where forcing a few bondholders to take a haircut causes a whole bunch of scared investors to flee the sovereign bond mkt. It's one thing to have a run on little insignificant Greece/Portugal...
  16. M

    Greece to make bond shorting illegal??

    Auction at 10AM GMT; results at 10:30AM.
  17. M

    Seeking a small set of most diversified bond futures?

    What do you mean "diversified"? Is the US treasury futures mkt "diversified" enough for you?
  18. M

    Greek Bailout Same as Subprime Lending

    That's been done before in the EM world through devaluation... Alternative, in the case of Greece (and, one could argue, the West as a whole), is severe wage deflation and a lowering of the standard of living.
  19. M

    Greek Bailout Same as Subprime Lending

    Well, as it happens, I actually agree with you re: long-term prospects for Greece and I have some money on the table to that end. However, playing devil's advocate, I am just suggesting how the Greeks would argue. After all, the point at which a liquidity problem turns into a solvency one is...
  20. M

    Greek Bailout Same as Subprime Lending

    All depends on what your definition of insolvency is for a sovereign... The Greeks would claim that, once their ambitious budget plan is successfully implemented, they would be perfectly solvent (or at least as solven as the other European sovereigns). Therefore, they insist on portraying...
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