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Who of us disagrees with *that*?!? The USA had been such squeakers for so long, but had built up such physical and intellectual capital, that T.Roosevelt lobbied successfully (I think he was SecNav at the time??) to have the U.S. fleet circumnavigate the globe, just 'showing the flag' over a...

Dude, you *need* things simple. :wtf:

Malthus would cheer your opinion, Sig, but ol' Julian Simon https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ultimate_Resource would simply chuckle his happy chuckle, and then show you the facts. :)

So often, what passes for "management" in finance (of all sorts!) is knee-jerkedness, *preceded* by severe blinders, lorded-over by CYA maneuvers. This includes Chicago, but also (apparently) Rock_Cap. The answer to your, "Surely, the CBOE has...." is a soft-peddled "no." Nobody wanted the rock...

It's not just the "up" js, but the collapse of IV even as HV (or "actualized" or whatever floats *your* boat)... has leveled or climbed. That's *crazy*!!! But it's not something we've needed to watch in Index land -- that's something only for those pesky equity IC traders..... NOT.

I am *very* uncomfortable buying -- it *creeps* me. That said, ...And so what I'm doing now is, when I have to buy out of a position, I'll buy more than I sold. E.g. Expiring on Friday, I have SPX call spreads ranging from 2800 on up. I'm frightened ("frightened!!":wtf:) by some still sitting...

... deep OTM.....

Okay, so, you're on the right track: imagine a 2% increase of worker productivity, in each of China and ol' USofA . 1) What happens to GDP in China? 2) What happens to GDP in USA? See the difference now?

I disagree. The policy wonk/economist/social scientist in me says, "Yay! More data! Larger n!!! Yay!" But I believe that there have been structural changes in the market which obviate the usefulness of [a lot of] data beyond ~2007. Not *all* of it, but a 'yes' in specific regards to market-wide...

What you are describing seems ready to set you up for the strategic version of "Whipsaw" -- in that, just as you leave ICs for strong directionals, the market will turn on you and wipe you out. May I suggest that you work on position management *before* a whole-clothed tossing of ICs? For...

Think of GDP as option delta, and GDP per capita as option gamma. *Now* do you see what China poses currently, next decade, next century? "Yipes!!" :wtf:

And in fact I'm long-term bearish ON THE CURRENT P/E.... (Which is to say, out more than 12 months, we either drop the p, or raise the e -- but right now, they're cooking on a fire I could not mess with. But when I hear about waiting for 30%-40% drops -- "reasonable" people have been singing...

IB's TWS has all sorts of fat-finger protections. These are the sorts of things you might've hit with a check-mark to "Please never show this to me again..." FIND that Global Config area, and un-check all those protective boxes. Only re-check them after a season or two of comfort. (Lastly, if...

Remember your probabilities -- one solid half of Expected Value..... To wit: Taxes are 100% going to come. One dollar on debt reduction is 100% a dollar of Net Position improvement. Earning money? Revenues? "Ewwwww."

FWIW, I could never get either of them to be at all predictive. (Or, for that matter, "explanatory.") Markets change, though, so I still try (pretty much) everybody out, once a year or so. Fiddle with those look-back parameters and see if you can get anything to work. And see if that can...

You might want to test your thesis on market data over the past (Ohhhh, let's say, 'decade') before you recommend it to others. :rolleyes:

The manner of your capital's deployment should be no different now than it would be 10-24 months from now. Expected $/day. Reward-to-risk. Reward-to-risk. Dollars per day. Every day. If you would not rush 24 months from now, don't do it now. Do not marry positions, but let the goal of...

Individuals make up crowds that, through human history, have done profoundly stupid, mean, crass, cruel, abhorrent, and highly, *highly* regrettable things. Your inability to acknowledge that should be a concern to you. There is nothing wrong with your recognizing the (huge!!!) potential of each...

Not odd at all. The magic words are "White Label." If you google IB White Label, you'll see a bunch of TWS users. Not a good thing; nor a bad; just a company realizing that there is room in (their TWS) world for other players, who might pay them(!!!) for products/services (like TWS and account...

I respect (and appreciate!!) your post, but you are writing of individuals. "'Merica" as a whole are not only crassly ignorant, but worse, *righteous* about it.:wtf: "Da-ammmmmmn!" :(