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Where does Natenberg indicate this? It's just my opinion but I don't think that it's true that an option buyer with no edge can expect to only lose the risk free rate plus commish/slippage. If it was, every mutual/hedge/pension fund, investor, etc. would do it in conjunction with equity...

Forsooth... Alas and alack for in truth, thou did not holdeth any diagonal spreads

To quote Ronald Reagan's son Ron, "Sarah Palin is a soap opera, basically. She's doing mostly what she does to make money and keep her name in the news. She is not a serious candidate for president and never has been."

What matters in Egypt is "being" Mubarak. His personal wealth is estimated to be in the vicinity of $40-70 billion with real estate trophy assets in London, Rodeo Drive, Manhattan, etc. His sons are billionaires as well (I wonder if our economists are doing such precise forecasts :confused: :D...

Free option data with Greeks is unlikely. You may have to write (buy) a program for that or use Excel real time to capture it. Crimsonmind.com used to offer historical option data for free but they ended that a coupla months ago - seems like everything free becomes a "fee for" when enough...

I'll have to recuse myself from the vote since I am highly biased against owning stock for any length of time :). I can't remember the last time I got an annual report.

Here are 2 Probability Calculators that I have come across in my travels. I have no clue if they're what you seek :) http://www.optionistics.com/f/probability_calculator http://www.hoadley.net/options/barrierprobs.aspx

Size of the move is essential to determine ideal strategy. Programs like Optionvue (last I saw it) will scan the chains and determine maximum performance. If moves are small, options may not be the best vehicle. If large, outright calls. If medium and risk averse, perhaps spreads.

You neglected to mention 3b) the option holder doesn't get that recyclable glossy annual report :)

Occasionally there are some good articles at their web site so I suppose Optionetics is the inverse of "You get what you pay for." :)

In some regards, long term investing is like day/swing trading. You need some degree of knowledge, timing and selection as well as learning from mistakes. Buy & hold investing during the past "lost decade" was losing proposition (poor job growth, decreasing household income, a housing...

Depends on the size of and the time required for the move.

Ignoring commissions, your purchase price is the same either way. The advantage of the synthetic is that the margin is $380 versus $450 for the stock. The disadvantage is B/A slippage and add'l commissions.

Someone forgot to wear his aluminum foil hat today :)

Ya know, with a little imagination, you can create your own. {_l_} {_o_} (after the reaming) :)

What do you do when you have opened a trade? I pour another cup of tea, drink it as fast as I can and then consult with the residual tea leaves. For more of a challenge, I do it with alphabet soup.

In the market, ugliness is a beautiful thing. :)

Realistically, what are the chances of the SPY going to infinity or going to zero? :)

The breakeven for long options at expiration is strike + call cost for calls and strike minus put cost for puts. However, they can be profitable long before expiration if you get movement in your direction (see link). An earnings play is a bit more complicated because implied volatility (IV)...

Absolutely no mention of that leeeetle bit of useful information. It was presented as "make money either way" trade. After hearing of my imminent wealth, I was going to start looking for available real estate on the Riviera. :)