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So, the S&P reverts to a mean, but you cannot say what that mean should be because if you had identified a mean value area and indeed faded the market you would have gotten crushed. For the past two years. But other than that it is not trendy. Put up a Weekly consolidated chart for the...

Oh, I think he has a point. I am taking fewer clients than I used to because the net P&L on the swing trading versus the HF approach has frankly shocked me a bit. The clients I am taking on tend to more experienced and accomplished and less of a pain-in-the-ass for me. The other aspect is...

Well, since I transitioned from HF to swing trading a few years ago my original thought was that I would need something else to do with the time and energy normally spent staring at the screen and engaged in a white-knuckle ride. There was also the assumption at that time that my trading income...

And maybe that is why 98 % of retail traders lose. They just do ! ( I've always been curious where he ranks himself )

I personally know a group in Evanston that leases Apama for like $18K per month, and their entire strategy is based upon fading certain market moves on a highly conditional and rules-based regime. They staff their desk 24 hours per day, and are constantly scanning the newswires and markets in...

Oh, you are entirely correct, and I have even taken on experienced traders as clients who spent their entire careers fighting the market. They made money on one hand, and on the other would readily admit that it really was an exhausting methodology and in hindsight felt that the way they went...

That is fair, using the term "easy" I meant in comparison to trading a flat price directional market like ES or CL or 6E. I have been spread trading and using CQG, Bloomberg, and eSignal since 1992. What I am doing now is using what has been "optimized" in an evolutionary manner during those...

Sure, the spread differential either converges or diverges - but that price action is much easier to model and trade than the underlying flat price. Not sure what you meant regarding the underlying, but any spread that mimics the delta directional traits of the underlying (Gold vs. Silver, or...

Rodney, you disappoint. DRW, Ronin, Peak-6, HTG, etc. etc. etc. Been around lately ?

RK, I know that you know the point I am trying to get across - nobody other than the retail wonk is taking directional risk these days. This idea of some big trader scalping ES off a tic chart with a MACD does not exist with the big firms. This entire exercise about "Technical Analysis" is...

Shortie, trying to scalp the ES or 6E or CL is so futile and crowded. That is not how it really gets done, BTW.

Shortie, your question is superb. The only traders taking directional risk these days are the retail types. I do not time market turns. I have never bought a market low or sold a market high in 19 years, and I have no faith that will change and in fact I do not require market timing to make a...

You know when a thread has deteriorated into a pissing contest amongst elves when I post something for you wonks to think about SERIOUSLY and the conversation does not change. Let me guess, about two of you really trade. The market is undergoing a paradigm shift - the only traders taking...

Still one more example where the Wave Count monks got another blanket party.

Nobody seems to be able to trade Bollinger Bands correctly. Amazing. Every retail punter wants a level to fade. Pivots. Channels. Wave Counts. Volatility Bands. Fibonacci. The list is long. Fading is a sickness.

It would seem that the only trading classification taking risk these days are the equity prop / retail futures crowd.

Prof, I don't have my custom studies loaded into the charts I posted, but you certainly get the point and you can read between the lines. We use volatility-dependent multiple timeframe confirmations and set our profit and stop-loss targets AT ENTRY. For about half of the losses I take, the...

Lucias, CL flat price, or CL vs. ES ? If you want the CL vs. ES, I will have to run some statistical tests in terms of the volatility adjusted hedge ratio. So, pick your poison please.

I got crucified over in the grain forums from EMG and LOCAL because I spread trade based off of technical models which I developed especially for spreads. It used to be that the interest rate curve and the energy complex was my bread-and-butter, but the grains in 2010 and 2011 have been...