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Beige book at 14:00 today. Seems like selling off post FED news/speak is a common pattern lately. My stat model gave equal or slightly weighted towards a sell into the Close today, but I'm still prone to seeing what I want to see in the market and certainly not always able to stay 100 %...

RIP longs.

Probably too late for a bounce now. Better opportunities tomorrow... :)

And out again at B/E (46). One last bullet. Maybe 4360 if we start moving, but not expecting much now.

Picking a bottom here. Paper thin edge.

Maybe 4340 for a bounce on ES, but likely to be weak? Bidless for now... :)

Triggered a bounce, but no fireworks yet... Looks like continuation lower, but not shorting this so late in the session. Maybe a long if NQ snaps back in range and ES back above 50.

Waiting for NQ to break yesterday's LOD to see if that could trigger some buying into the close. Stat model gives mixed signals, i.e., we could both see a sell lower and a reversal back to mid range by the Close.

Of course. I will generally speak up when my model produces some high probability (> 75 %) outcomes, though. I’m not at my trading computer now, so I don’t have access to my crystal ball. Back to the original post you quoted… On hindsight charts everything is perfectly clear as...

Yes. 100 % correct. :)

80 % of the time on 'a day like this'. Today, it was unchanged at the tick. Not too often you see that. :)

The prediction was basically higher prices. I don't have a strong opinion on the close, but generally, a day like today closes green. Not always, but more often than not. :) The market seems to be 'loose' at the moment, though, so best to stay nimble, I think?

LOL. And what the hell happened to you? I mean LOL literally, as I'm laughing here. I simply said the sample size of completing a 5/15 day Combine is way too small a sample size to infer anything meaningful. That's statistics 101 and nothing personal against anyone. If anyone's offended by...

KISS TA! :) The extent of the pullback pre-market spooked me, but I had very high probabilities for higher prices today based on yesterday's close. This type of model can be a bit rough, though.

And I wish you much success. I'm just suggesting that you're reading too much into it as the sample size is way too small and you also seem to ignore the fact that you failed 1000 times prior to that. One of the reasons why (day) trading is so difficult is because the market conditions are...

Tricky morning for me, too. NQ finally caught a bid below Friday's LOD, but ES have an unfilled gap around 58, so keeping any eye on that. I was pretty bullish pre-market, but not so sure now. Maybe we'll have some more down side still.

Tough to bet against @schizo and @vanzandt. :)

Low ticked while busy with something else, but I re-enter long around 90. Too consuming to post actual trades, but let's just say I think this dip was a good buy for higher prices today.

Longed 89.50. 5 point stop. Will probably re-enter if stopped. Add on the way up. Looking for 4420. EDIT: Stop at 89. 2 ticks. Re-enter if stopped. :) EDIT 2: Make that 88.50. 4 ticks at risk. Add if we snap back up in range.

I think I'm buying this dip, but waiting for a bottom. Maybe 4385/80.