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    Snuskpelle's CFD Adventures 2020

    Close +1836 Thank you corona virus. Now please don't infect my father when he travels home during Chinese New Year travelling period on Friday. ;_;
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    Snuskpelle's CFD Adventures 2020

    Sell China A50 x -12 @ 14016 stop 14071 Corona virus bet. Normally I'd BTFD with graph looking like this so nice to do the opposite.
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    Snuskpelle's CFD Adventures 2020

    Closed BCOUSD -320 (stop was for -600), at this rate I would have to go with a wider stop for trade to make sense. I'm sure it's gonna reverse now.
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    Snuskpelle's CFD Adventures 2020

    HK33 and China A50 moving a lot on corona virus fears recently, unfortunately couldn't stay up the night to trade it and CFD/future was closed by the time I read about it so no advance position either. My dad is over doing business in Wuhan this week so I hope he's fine. ^.^
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    Snuskpelle's CFD Adventures 2020

    Closed add on for +47 (i.e. nothing), too indecisive. Base pos with wider stop remaining open.
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    Snuskpelle's CFD Adventures 2020

    Buy BCOUSD x 310 @ 65.41 stop 65.18 Previous position is quite small, adding a bit with much more narrow stop. Will get nice audio alert if it's hit so I can contemplate the wider position.
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    Snuskpelle's CFD Adventures 2020

    Buy BCOUSD x 310 @ 65.68 stop 63.77 Speculating in long term trend resumption in crude. Besides, there's the potential for another sell the news situation.
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    German derivatives traders shocked by new tax law

    Holy crap, I'm seriously afraid this shit conjured by someone with their brain turned off will diffuse here to Sweden. I don't mind paying taxes. I do mind paying taxes on money that never existed. Losing trades is cost of doing business and achieving winning trades, failing to understand this...
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    Long short game

    $50k by trade 100, tired after that. Some issues: If I could do this live for 11 years (i.e. corresponding to 100 * 40 days)? Probably not. Heck, just B&H last 11 years would do as well or better. My selection criteria are heavily overfit on low vol regime of US equity markets created by QE...
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    Snuskpelle's CFD Adventures 2020

    Nope China A50 stopped, another 600 I presume (will look up exact figure for this and previous trade tomorrow). Cursory self-investigation: These were not trend following trades. So were they panic dip buys? Not so in the case of NQ. China A50 was more debatable but it was not waiting for the...
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    Snuskpelle's CFD Adventures 2020

    Buy NAS100USD x 55 @ 9064 stop 9053 Lower end of range Edit: Nope shit timing, stopped -600 Illustrates what happens when I try to trade a ranging rather than trendy market. ;-) Looks easy but it is deceptive like hell. Another case of want to trade but shouldn't, will sit on hands now.
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    Snuskpelle's CFD Adventures 2020

    Buy China A50 x 13 @ 14480 stop 14468 Increasingly looking bullish for tomorrow. Taking large spread hit here of ~160. Might consider making stop slightly wider if it survives until the evening.
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    Candlestick probability

    Can't refrain from tasteless jokes, sorry.
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    Candlestick probability

    For sure, too bad we didn't get a war... =/
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    Candlestick probability

    Something is off with my semantics then. If price behaves in a predictable statistical pattern that's the same as saying recent price explains price movement. FYI I have no problem with that in special cases such as clean strong trends. My qualm is more about people thinking they will find lots...
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    Candlestick probability

    Sure, but whether you can explain those price moves w.r.t. to price data is an entirely different matter. If you can't, they're effectively random until you find some other data that can be used to explain the moves.
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    Candlestick probability

    Some things to consider: There has been an incredible amount of processing power thrown over the years at predicting the fixed time span price difference from a fixed time span lookback window (or simply the direction given a minimum level of volatility), because this is literally the easiest...
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    Snuskpelle's CFD Adventures 2020

    Previous HK33 trade was just mistimed it would appear, max profit on bull move starting half an hour later w/o leverage was 0.8%. As for today, markets seem fairly non-trendy with a narrow range at the moment, hence I'm waiting for some new driver. Maybe trade deal signing is it.
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    Trade deal signing on Jan 15!

    I'm sure he meant volatility will stay approximately the same on signing (w.r.t. to this factor, of course something unrelated can cause market to move whenever).
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    Trade deal signing on Jan 15!

    Signed as expected outcome fully priced in. The interesting part is what will follow once signed. If not signed, I expect market backlash (duh), but this is an unlikely scenario. Better for trading though.
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