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https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/10/fixed-mindsets-might-be-why-we-dont-understand-statistics/ The (Bayesian) answer would be a lot simpler in Boolean terms...... In T/A, the "fixed thinking" displaces whole sets of outcomes that fail to be ascribed to the immediate study -- applications...

Yes -- and the reason is, if I'm using T/A (like ATR or VIX/VIX9D quotes, or per-strike IV, for that matter), if I think they're giving me a good picture for the next 15-20 minutes? I'll actually trust it for 5-10 minutes. They're indicators, after all... The thing about anything derived from...

My (vague) recollection is that issuance comes with pressure -- much as do smaller (more frequent) strike intervals. So, your own inquiry could make a difference (although, if you had $1B in AUM, that would probably help.....:rolleyes:)

First, the formula they use is actually specific to not just the day, but the hour and the minute -- so the results will be different at 8:30, at 9:30 cash open, at 1:45..... Second, the IV (forward looking -- "Big talk"...) versus a look at prior week's daily?? [ATR(6)], IV-talk is cheap, but...

T/A -- whether tick scalping, intraday, 2-3day, or longer, is like having additional eyeballs on a subject of interest. It doesn't guarantee what you're seeing, and too much can certainly cloud your vision. But I'd no more trade without T/A tools -- properly tuned and focused -- than I would...

Printing burns paper and ink. Via the cludgy IB_TWS charting, it's an easy thing to draw straight lines, move them around, create parallels -- so I'll go so far as to note (what I think are to be) trends, try to get a visible handle on their periodicity*, and if I think I have a pattern that...

$600 Mil?!?! I missed it!!! Well!!! (Whenever it breaches ~$440m, I try to buy a ticket, as it becomes a rational economic bet. And ("Yayyyyy!") now that it's topped $800m, all the better!!! https://abcnews.go.com/US/mega-millions-powerball-lotteries-now-billion-combined-jackpot/story?id=58505714 )

*Mostly* I have found it dead dead dead. Perhaps a quarter of the time I might have actually wished to trade (either SPX or ES), was there actually a market to do so. The other times (as someone noted), the likely taken price would've been beyond the intrinsic contract value, so ":finger...

Excuse me. Did I say next Friday? Yeah? No no no -- I meant this Friday. Yeah yeah yeah. ;) "We could be kissing 2900 this Friday.... Fergawdsakes..." :wtf::rolleyes: :D

I think olde men pee at night more often than SPX options trade. :wtf::confused:o_O:rolleyes:

Well then, we're done here.

Ummmm. You need to specify a "By __________" point. ;) (Oh, and, no -- I will not take your bet. We could be kissing 2900 next Friday. Fergawdsakes.....:rolleyes:)

I'd say, "That's Random" except, it's linear. o_O

The two are nearly unrelated. As noted, a correction is a financial market convention ("a 10% drop"), and might occur multiple times in any year. A recession is two consecutive cites of negative GDP, which may occur twice in a generation. So, about every 20 corrections, there may be a...

WOW.:wtf: Last hour, a descent from 2775 to 2748 or so -- thirty points in sixty minutes, 'just cuz.'o_O Wwwwww-wow. :vomit::p:cool: I hope the OP raked today.

"Oh, you're finished. Well allow me to retort!" I will admit that I do not get any insight into markets, trading, or your trades, from that "Sunrise Over The Bay" impressionistic melangé you posted. But my (nearly brand new) method(s) are baldly displayed on any graph I might post. So, eh, "No."

Ain't it byoo-tee-ful? Well, that's what can be shared, anyway.....

something to research -- the difference between an Introducing Broker (an "IB" unrelated to Interactive Brokers :D) and a DMA (Direct Market Access) *then* take that knowledge, and read about dark pools. Ultimately, you'll find that market price, price/earnings ratios, and The Latest Tweet...

Are words missing here? Impossible to understand what you're seeking. But, if you follow Bob Morse' advice -- think of a farmer's market, and four or five tables selling tomatoes. What would make their prices go up or down? The financial markets are no different. "Exactamundo!" Nailed it...

Yeahhhh, looks like a hard day to be short. The last time I looked was at 4:45-ish ET, and the market had bottomed, so I felt a tad better for the OP's market short. I thought the day might open flatter, and then start up with Euro-close. (And *not* with the Euro-OPEN, which is what appears to...