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None visible in this universe. Can't speak for yours. Precisely what he did. (In this universe. Can't speak for yours.) He posted 30 minutes after his initial post, and 10 minutes after he'd gotten intel from IB. (In this universe. Not in yours, I guess.) A thing impossible for you to know --...

He posed a question, and then posted of issue resolution, and then fielded ensuing attacks on his character and intellect.:rolleyes: What drives some people to post .... is beyond me. o_O

"And how does that help me make money?"

I'm reminded of that aphorism about 'when the tide goes out, we find out who's got a bathing suit and who doesn't.....' :rolleyes: In any event, those who price options perforce reveal their estimates of adverse events. We pick those probabilities up by backing out the volatility implied by...

What gives, jharmon? You appear to not have read this thread at all. WTH?

For some of them, it's a way of life. :confused: (In any event [and obvious to some], this was not a 1700ET 'flicker', but a flat-out outage. And only on some accounts. 3 hours south of Chicago, I did not see it. A friend 60 miles further south did. Haven't seen one for months, but glad it...

At 2350, the Fed will yawn and remind everyone that they are about the economy and not about "Wall Street", and that if they *were* about Wall Street, then they would take notice when the S&P p/e is materially below its historic average (which at 2350, it would just be hitting).......

Corto: your question was on your method, and secondarily, on 'how can [you] make money. Your method is off because expectancy is based on covering an entire event space -- i.e., all probabilities sum to 1.00 -- but you've got a spread in there, with a P(notITM) = 0.84, and a P(ITM) of 0.14 --...

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/06/the-stock-selloff-started-with-a-mysterious-fall-in-the-futures.html

Terrific post. :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

Not only the Asia stuff, also (as mentioned above), but this too, from 30 years ago... We've been playing this scary little game for a while. It's damn important, but way few pay any attention...:(

OMG!!! That's the thing I hear advertised on NPR?!?! I see how they can afford to sponsor!

FINGERS CROSSED over here, man! :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

Unfortunately, not. This is from the Wikipedia page on John Guica: "Aftermath of Conviction Reversal Russo's Confession On March 22, 2018, Antonio Russo confessed to killing Mark Fisher [48]. Russo detailed the killing to detectives, in a DD5 that was passed along to Giuca's attorney Mark...

Maybe not: IB does its monthly changes to data subscriptions pretty much "anytime during the first week of the month" so, they could've sent you a price change about something weeks ago, you let it go, subscription-wise, and they just now acted on the termination. (Which means, you could be 2-3...

Jeez. I thought I was going exotic, from a standard-if-antique oak swivel desk chair, to a Sams Club special ($99!) with the faux suede on the not-so-cushioned-anymore arms. I'd love to replace it, but every time I think about it, I think, "Really? Why, again?" and I can't bring myself to do it...

I don't have an option chain handy, but I suspect what will happen with this double diagonal spread is that the nearer term sold-to-reduce-the-debit strikes will be less than the theta (not paid) by their being sold closer-to-expiration. If you were buying a middle strike for $10, and selling a...

YOU are responsible for the code submitted to IB via the API, not IB. IB has institutions, family funds, and retail traders all trading the API, for years. What do you suppose would happen to that customer base, were a costing fault as you describe, to be found out? (Let's say, via the *annual*...

Okay, so as not to veer too far from the OP, let's examine that probability modeler on Larry McMillan's site: https://www.optionstrategist.com/calculators/probability Is there anything there that is different from an inverted "Expected Move" calculation? No. It's got a market price, a strike...

Except that when vol takes an extended holiday, and you've still got a mortgage to meet......:confused: ((Translation: when vol camps out below the historic average for a year or two or four, and you end up by being a bullfrog's fart away from the hot flame of the market for week after week...