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Oh please. We have companies going out of business and disappearing and we have companies being taken private at a premium all the time. In a well-diversified portfolio over a big enough number of market cycles, these effects could well negate each other. And anyways, is that not why we look...

Very different from buying longs. Stock indexes have a longterm upward bias, not a downward bias. You can always sit on longs in the red and wait 20 years and they will likely be in the green. Not so with short positions. Either you are right very very short-term or you lose money. It's as...

Since when is it smart to short into a strong, prevalent uptrend :confused:

CAN YOU HEAR THE K-FRIGGIn-KACHING!!! Congrats to all dipsters and overnight longsters!!! Being a pig really does pay!!! Congrats $$$

ES +0.40% on my screen. Are we getting close to the intermediate term top? :confused:

I love 1000% up room to go with zero risk $$$

What about Enrons and Worldcoms blowing up? What about Russian bonds blowing up in 1998? Defaults happen everywhere that's why one should diversify HF investments.

What if I am not serious, would you still take my money and sell it to me? :p

See http://index.onvista.de/einzelwerte.html?ID_NOTATION=20735 See Marktkap. in Mio. € for approx. weighting.

Thanks for the post, Wayne. Seems the bears got excited 30 times 1996 - 2000 before they were eventually right :p

I love 100% up room to go :D

I think Hussman makes some valid points, especially making use of a longer term history and focussing on the dynamics of the interest rates (raises vs. cuts over time) rather than purely looking at individual earnings yield vs interest rates at any one time. For anybody interested on building...

Good fund, careful though. CAF is a closed-ended fund, and its price does not necessarily follow the A shares 1:1. I.e. you could be right about China A shares going down but the CEF could trade in the opposite direction. This is not an ETF.

Thank you for the kind explanation. If I had understood your message right in the first place I could have made millions. I'm kicking myself over the missed opportunity :(

Very bullish IMO. More and more Chinese people dumping $$$ into stocks. Float decreases + more capital flowing into market + low interest rates = 100% up room to go!!! Zero risk.

Same here. The bears should be grateful to the Chinese communist regime that us foreigners can't short Chinese A shares. Boy would they get killed!!! :D

Watch them post new "this is the end of the world threads" on every 2% down day from Shanghai. How many 2% down days did we have in the SP500 from 1996-2000 before we finally topped out? LMAO :D

That's what makes quick powerful drops unlikely in this environment! Too much cash waiting on the sidelines... "OH I WILL JUST WAIT FOR A 5% DROP". On a side note: On a 5% drop that happens in two days, who here has the balls to go all in and buy? Panic is a powerful enemy.

I see 4 contracts in the bid for ES while I type this. If you buy a couple thousand ES and move ES +2 or 3 points you think it would last till tomorrow's opening? You can only move the market for so long with little volume.

"How Much Do Interest Rates Affect the Fair Value of Stocks?" http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc070521.htm