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  1. M

    Tipping point for the downturn regarding the US economy.

    And in 1950 you lost millions of low level farm jobs to Mexico and Brazil. Did that make Mexico and Brazil rich? Do you wish there were still millions of highschool dropouts working on US farms for $1 an hour? Or are we better off leaving these jobs to other countries and instead focusing our...
  2. M

    The Fake Recession! Look At The Growth Of Web 2.0

    My apologies, I blindly and unjustly started lecturing you. I love to employ sarcasm myself often which makes my attack on you even more embarrassing.
  3. M

    Tipping point for the downturn regarding the US economy.

    How can Mercedes, BMW and Porsche still compete, after being in business for +/- 75 years? Will they still be around in 10 years or will the Chinese rule the high-tech car market? Or will Western European cars always be a notch above the Chinese junk that is a mix of stolen technology and...
  4. M

    Tipping point for the downturn regarding the US economy.

    Regarding the steepness or severity of the downturn, definitely the failure of Lehman Brothers Sept 15 and the chaos that ensued through their collapse (enhanced margin accounts in London locked up, default on bonds and all OTC trades) This - in hindsight - seems to have set off a chain...
  5. M

    Please recommend some good books about hedgefund and trading strategies?

    Read fund managers monthly/quarterly letters to their partners if you can get a hold of them. Some contain a wealth of information. Here are some starting points: Eclectica Management http://www.eclectica-am.com Sprott Asset Management http://www.sprott.com/ Third Point...
  6. M

    The Fake Recession! Look At The Growth Of Web 2.0

    Do you have any experience making money in the online business? Eyeballs mean nothing. As soon as you try to monetize them, they disappear. What do you think would happen to Digg's traffic if they started to bombard people with ads, upsells and "premium offers"? 95% of these Web 2.0 sites...
  7. M

    China says lending to US will not go on forever

    Hugh Hendry was writing very recently that there is a "video going around macro hedge fund managers email inboxes of idle and deserted construction plants filmed all over China" and how he put on a small China short position. Anybody seen that video? Link?
  8. M

    trend following & dealing with retracements

    Backtest it. See if exiting and going to cash when a retracement occurs enhances your risk adjusted returns or if it doesn't. In my backtesting, it doesn't. I tested multiple variations of trying to determine if price is "turning around" in long and short term moving averages (i.e. is the...
  9. M

    China says lending to US will not go on forever

    How much of the inflation paranoia was fueled by the Federal Reserve and how much by the dumbass ECB hawks? This entire "buy commodities to hedge against inflation" headfake was hammered into investors' heads by the ECB, not the Fed: Bernanke Q2/2008 - "clear risks to growth" - "economy...
  10. M

    China says lending to US will not go on forever

    Yes I agree, I also understand what they said. They (JC Trichet, Axel Weber and that other moron Juergen Stark) will stand by idle again for another 5-6 months while talking tough how they don't want to fall into a liquidity trap, waiting for clear signs that their European export economy...
  11. M

    The Fake Recession! Look At The Growth Of Web 2.0

    24 months from now 95% of this Web 2.0 junk will be out of funding and thus out of business. Good riddance. http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/10/10/sequoia-capitals-56-slide-powerpoint-presentation-of-doom/
  12. M

    China says lending to US will not go on forever

    You mean what exactly? Trichet's hike in July from 4% to 4.25%, saying how they are concerned with inflation and how there's no recession looming in Europe? Followed by panic cuts of epic proportions just 10 weeks later? This is more congruent with blatant incompetence and incredible...
  13. M

    Brian Shannon partnering with Tim Sykes

    What's a "lot of money"? Few if any self-employed traders make "a lot of money" (= several millions a year from my perch) outside of trading (subscriptions, newsletters, books, seminars) and I'd be surprised if Sykes is one of them.
  14. M

    SHORT this gap up, it's a joke ----

    ET is like Jim Rogers: "Never a losing trade, since 1971".
  15. M

    Currency Wars: The Race For Export-Dependent Countries to Devalue Their Currencies

    Japan had a higher savings rate than most other developed nations, way back in the 90s. Not anymore.
  16. M

    A lot of people on EliteTrader will beat the market… here is why

    Nice to meet you, Mr. Madoff!
  17. M

    $7.5 billion "fund of hedge funds" was merely a Madoff marketing vehicle.

    Fairfield are history. They will be inundated with lawsuits plus their actual (real) FoF business is dead with the Madoff story. They didn't just have one fund. They had Fairfield Sentry = Madoff vehicle with 7.5bln. This was a feeder fund (collecting money from unsuspecting poor SOBs for %...
  18. M

    Credit Suisse to Use $5 Billion of Toxic Assets to pay Bonuses

    When you thought you've seen it all. Hilarious. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=auEEfFRNdqcs Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Credit Suisse Group AG's investment bank has found a new way to reduce the risk of losses from about $5 billion of its most illiquid loans and bonds...
  19. M

    Nothing will stop the looming global depression; Central Banks out of ammo

    If we're facing a Global Depression #2 then NOTHING and NOBODY is 100% safe - just in my opinion. No currency, no government, no hard asset, no bank, no broker, nothing, nowhere globally. If you are serious with your predictions (which would have to include a number of emerging markets or...
  20. M

    I just shorted the ES at 896

    Message from the bulls: You're welcome. SRS down -40% in 48 hours? How you're TZA doing? Average price $67 on that? Trades at $50 now.
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