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Well, we're going to have to agree to disagree here, I guess... In fact, some of the things that you say, I would actually agree with. However, your other statements are just outlandish. I just can't muster the will to discuss this ad infinitum at the moment.

The polls are already out... There are some signs that the SNB already intervened last week (arnd 2.7bn, if I am not mistaken). It's really not very exciting.

I am not pretending to be anything and you're missing the point. I have stated this numerous times before, but let me do it again. In a democracy, the population has to be held responsible for the decisions made by the elected government. if a succession of democratically elected governments...

Japan is a democracy. The private households elect their government, which to me means they are one and the same. If the government is living beyond its means, so are the citizens. I don't know whether the money printing will be useful. My point is that, if you're doomed, you might as well...

In this thread...

Zero, best case...

Jeezus, there's some really strange stuff going on here...

The move in gold, oil and other commods seems to suggest the exact opposite.

It's not a response to the QE announcement itself. It's a response to a few things that followed, such as the price action in the JGB mkt. Moreover, Monday this week was a Japan holiday, which also meant that the mkt may have been slower to digest and react to the news.

You're correct, I should have been more careful reading the original post... In fact, everywhere I look I see contango, rather than backwardation. That's what makes sense to me and I am not surprised by the shape of the curve currently. I should have really asked the OP to be more specific...

Mkt pricing further declines, that's all there is to it. Saudis are refusing to cut production, so the spread is just reflecting the ongoing dynamic.

Well, you also need to consider the drawdowns for the strategy (likely and max). If you can easily handle the mark-to-market losses, you maybe got yourself a winner. At any rate, this all just my Z$2c...

To be sure, this is Richard Fisher, not Fischer (who is a Stanley)... Just thought I'd point this out, as these two guys are confusing and often confused.

Well, think about it this way (to use an exaggerated simplistic example)... I think there's statistical evidence that suggests that, over any 5 year period, S&P always ends up higher at the end of the period (or something to that effect; I think it might actually be true, if you consider total...

I trust the statistical evidence, but there's an enormous chasm that separates statistical evidence and profitable trading. Especially in a context where leverage is used.

For a bit of related shenanigans: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-24/pimco-total-return-etf-drawing-sec-scrutiny-wsj-reports.html

I don't know... Maybe it does and there is some statistical evidence to support such a conclusion. However, all such evidence needs to be taken with a large pinch of salt.

You're selling the call spread. So that's, what, make 0.35 to potentially lose 0.5? I am not sure I fancy that, tbh... Is 60% "probability of success" the right terminal odds? Is it the right odds, given the leverage and the resulting path dependency? I dunno...

Based on what I've read, his strategy was pure "edge", but it was definitely negotiated by special arrangement...

You have to start by assuming that you will not be able to find a systematic edge in the market, like Don Johnson managed to find in the casino. That means you have to approach every single opportunity individually.