Search results

I thought we're done talking, you and I?

There are large secular trends, undoubtedly... As I mentioned in my previous post, I don't see any significant movement in the part-time statistics in the past couple of years. I can offer you the charts on that, but, more broadly, I am not really sure what we're arguing about here. I don't...

These are the charts of the actual numbers: Yellow is the unemployed in the labor force, white is the employed in the labor force (both in tens of thousand, sa). As to the argument about the hours worked, I do see the secular slowdown that's been in place from the 1970s. However, I see little...

Yellow on this chart is the unemployment rate. The jaggedy line is the LFPR, with the 12m moving average shown by the purple line. Would you like more?

It's a very tough mkt for rates guys these days. Everyone got involved post the taper tantrum, since it was just so obvious to everyone which way the wind is blowing. The rest is history. Is what we're witnessing here is a massive bond bubble in the making (if not already made), which will...

Whatever, sire... Best of luck to you!

Well, I have no idea if it's a good or bad long-term trade... That is, I am not saying it's a bad trade. One problem is that there are lots of people out there, who think this way (a lot fewer after this year's bloodbath). The other problem is that there are all sorts of possible outcomes...

Yes, it's a sort of a VIX for treasury futures... No idea whether it's available publicly.

Erm, well, you're missing the fact that this trade can lose you a lot of money... Also, you're paying for the privilege being short.

I will quote, again, his October 2009 letter (you can find it on the web): "...we believe OECD rates will begin their ascent within the next 18 - 24 months and that the best convexity for rates is in Japan." There are also other passages there that suggest that Kyle Bass bet on higher Japanese...

Haha, Kyle Bass, one of the most informed and knowledgeable people on anything regarding economics in Japan? I guess that must be why he is on record predicting a monster JGB selloff within 18-24 months in 2009? At the time he made this "prophecy", 10y JGBs were yielding 1.3%. Today, they...

Say what???

Awwwww, how quickly you have gone from "hard-earned reputation" and "expert" (even if I was just pretending to be one) to "fool", "moron" and "idiot"... What a fall from grace it's been for me!

I thought bankruptcies were part of capitalism. You know all that creative destruction stuff? In general, I am really not into this cherry-picking of data and charts. I could offer you a few of my own, but it's difficult to draw conclusions.

Erm, wake up and smell the roses, my friend... What alternative naive universe do you inhabit where governments, through a captive central bank, are not capable of monetizing debt? I mean, even I, allegedly this forum's foremost central bank shill and apologist (just ask Tsing, if in doubt)...

* Like I said, if you believe my data is incorrect, pls provide evidence to support such a statement. I am telling you that my numbers are broadly correct, whether they are from 2012, 2013 or 2014. As I keep saying, the different results that we're arriving at are NOT due to the difference in...

The numbers are not outdated. Even a cursory examination would lead one to conclude that the numbers provided are correct, regardless of the year. Moreover, the data is not missing, unless you have forgotten how to use the scroll bar. Hence my point about the formatting. Again, if you...

There's just no pleasing you... First, I don't have them numbers. Then, when I give you the numbers, they are in the wrong format or outdated or provided by the wrong source or whatever. If it's not the numbers, then it's me perverting the argument by playing with words. As far as I can see...

As of 2013, using the IMF data here...

It has been confirmed, a whole number of times...