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  1. M

    Japan has fallen victim to the Keynesian scam

    Happy to provide both, sire!
  2. M

    The Bank of Japan – Ringing in the Endgame?

    Well, firstly, what I said then may not apply today (pls note "thus far" and a whole passage at the end of that post, which emphasized that). When/if facts change, I am perfectly happy to change my view. Secondly, what economic events, precisely? As far as I can see, real GDP is running arnd...
  3. M

    Continous hedging as a rachet device to lock-in profits

    Amico, I think you've missed the point of this article... I don't need to read it fully to appreciate your unfortunate misunderstanding. The article discusses a setting where a bank (i.e. a market-maker) collects a premium for selling an option. This premium explicitly includes bid/offer and...
  4. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    OKI-DOKI, while I can't agree with your logic, I don't think there's any point in discussing the specifics... I wish you the best of luck in this one!
  5. M

    VRX restating earnings...BLATANT frontrunning

    Well, it's obvious, innit? You give more credence to Damodaran for the same exact reason that you have cited. He makes his living selling books and giving classes, i.e. he's not involved in the securities that he's analyzing most of the time. That means that, unlike someone who's in the...
  6. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I have looked at the stats for Ackman's Pershing Square fund (using the latest HSBC HF report). According to the numbers provided there, I see that the following applies: Sharpe Ratio: 0.81 Max drawdown: 36% If I understood the article correctly, to "enjoy" the performance shown above, I would...
  7. M

    VRX restating earnings...BLATANT frontrunning

    I have been following the VRX debacle from the sidelines, fascinated by the stories. why anyone would invest in this company is absolutely beyond me. There is just no "margin of safety" whatsoever and therefore no edge. On an unrelated note, I would highly recommend Aswath Damodaran's take on...
  8. M

    The Bank of Japan – Ringing in the Endgame?

    Ah yes, there is that... It's pretty lively and volatile at the moment, though.
  9. M

    The Bank of Japan – Ringing in the Endgame?

    Greatest futures contract in the world? How did Kuroda destroy it?
  10. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    OKI-DOKI
  11. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I am intensely curious why anyone would want to invest in/with Bill Ackman...
  12. M

    The Bank of Japan – Ringing in the Endgame?

    I am back... What can I help with?
  13. M

    Japan has fallen victim to the Keynesian scam

    I am here... What can I help with, Signore TT?
  14. M

    What is the cheapest to deliver 10y UST for the March 2016 ZN contract?

    At the mom, looks like it's 2% 11/22...
  15. M

    Inflation hedge for an operating company

    Well, historical standards might not be such a good guide here, given that headline CPI is pretty much guaranteed to print negative for the next few months. Brave new world, innit?
  16. M

    Inflation hedge for an operating company

    Yes, that's right, this is a "breakeven inflation" trade. As to the "basis", yes, there's always a component of breakeven inflation which is driven by liquidity etc, rather than underlying inflation. However, that shouldn't be too painful in this case. Given the ease of using ETFs, I'd...
  17. M

    Inflation hedge for an operating company

    TIPS, probably, is the closest you can get... You might need to do something about oil/gasoline, though.
  18. M

    Alexis Tsipras' "open letter" to German citizens

    The ECB cannot make decisions of this nature. It's a government's prerogative to implement measures like this, which, for the Eurozone, presents an obvious conundrum.
  19. M

    Any thoughts on why WTI contango narrowed sharply past few days?

    It's probably all because of Auntie Janet in Washington...
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