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Could you pls clarify which Prestige Asset Management the prospectus refers to? Is it the one mentioned here: http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pages/doing/regulated/law/alerts/overseas.shtml If it's this one, it wouldn't be a good thing... Or is it the one here...

For the record, I am a Euro-optimist...

True points, I was just suggesting the FF paper as a general example of how much rigor is required to do the exercise properly. Simply relying on the estimated risk-neutral PDF is a strategy fraught with all sorts of peril. I occasionally use this type of analysis to get a sense of the...

This is funny: http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-how-to-make-the-worlds-easiest-10-billion-2009-12

I use this sorta thing occasionally (not for the S&P). There are all sorts of caveats to consider, however... If you want to look at an example of how this is done with a bit more rigor than just simply recovering the PDF from option prices, you could try here...

They hold foreign assets, because, similar to China, they used to run a large trade surplus. They do have a very high debt/GDP, but it's all financed by domestic savings, not by foreign investors. One thing that's been highlighted recently is that household savings ratio in Japan has been...

I have seen this page many a time, amico. Also, I never accused you of being stupid. I just meant to say that the SNB share capital of CHF25mil should tell you immediately that you can't treat the SNB as a commercial entity. It has a balance sheet of CHF200bn.

You might wanna read a weeee little bit about what these SNB shares actually are, my friend...

Well, if I am a govt bond investor, who else should I rely on for guidance? In my experience, the ratings agencies do a solid job where sovereigns are concerned. I don't have too many complaints. Moreover, one important aspect is that the CBs (e.g. the ECB and the BoE) rely on the ratings...

Me stalking you, disagreeing w/everything you post? You have lost me... What the heck are you referring to? Methinks you're being paranoid here, mon ami... All I am suggesting is that, by default, I am not going to celebrate when I am forced to take a haircut just because someone decides...

If I were a Wells Fargo shareholder, I am not sure I would want to see more of this...

Which outrights? Outright ABX? My point was not about CDS vs outright ABX, but rather CDS vs other contingent claim products, such as options. The reason for Paulson's success was that he was able to buy massively mis-priced tails (i.e. mkt perceived them as lottery tickets) that turned out...

Paulson's performance has nothing in particular to do with the type of instruments he was using... It had everything to do with the fact that he was able to buy options that were, in hindsight, mis-priced, i.e. he was able to buy them insanely cheaply (I hear there was a big seller in the...

Wouldn't you want to buy the 32 - 40 strangle, rather than selling it, to express the OP's view?

I'd have to disagree with the article in posted originally. There's statistical evidence that contradicts the author's conclusion. See here: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/01/less-education-hurt-everyone-unmployed.html

Her name is Elena Isinbayeva (Елена Гаджиевна Исинбаева). She's universally accepted to be the greatest female pole vaulter of all time.

Actually, gilts like the news... Mkt was more or less expecting 230bn issuance for next year, but the DMO only announced 225.1bn (Darling gave a figure of 220bn, interestingly).

Well, IMHO, the ECB's independence is a matter of construction, rather than anything particularly European... Agree with your latter points... European societies are, for a variety of historical reasons, more paternalistic. To SNB: I disagree with you on one fundamental point. You seem to...

I am not calling you a liar... I am calling you ignorant.

The matter with some of us is that we actually know what we're talking about... I was assuming you were addressing your remarks to me.