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    ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

    ES traded another 7.25pt entire day's range following yesterday's no-range in the pit session there. No one on earth has ever seen market action like this, because never before in history has the U.S. Fed become a direct player in financial markets so blatantly open and unabashed. No one has...
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    FirstDegree and Crude Oil

    Let me add one fact I wish to heck I'd internalized several years ago... it has made a tremendous difference in my career since grasping this reality. You cannot be perfect in every trade. You cannot almost be perfect in most trades. You cannot be really good in even most of your trades...
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    CL Redux

    riiiiiiiiiiiight... up until the very day of a 1,000 tick straight-trend move, which happens more often than any average-down trader's career will span in CL
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    CL Redux

    well, price movement can really change when volume flow shifts. prime example now are emini index futures. days when volume is nil = no range, no oscillations... just v-turn spikes and slams. so that changes the historical patterns and structure to price. days when volume flows normal to...
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    CL Redux

    to be honest, I have my dome set to show size on the bid/ask only... one level of orders visible. I don't even pay any attention to that as it is. I do watch flow thru time & sales just to see how size clears the tape with regard to slippage other than that, everything I need to know is...
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    CL Redux

    good news is, bots don't dominate CL all day every day. the natural supply/demand laws won't allow that, commodity markets are not controllable for long. witness grains, metals, sugar, cotton, etc big difference from stock index markets which are nothing more than arbitrary digits on paper...
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    CL Redux

    I'll answer some of this generically, not to put words in Donna's mouth First of all, one-lot traders will always max out points / pips / cents performance above all others. Once we add contract size, max performance wanes. That is in part due to fills but mostly due to human nature. No...
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    CL Redux

    Do you mean ticks = cents? Pretty sure that's the case... just clarifiying. fwiw I agree with the +2,000 cents per month potential is very doable, although a fraction of that on 10-lots to 20-lots is more than enough.
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    FirstDegree and Crude Oil

    hey... me too. I look forward to the same thing, myself. It's only been since 1999 in this game for me... shouldn't be very long now :) to summarize what I think you said, you see yourself in "cautious scalper" mode or 1-1 ratio quick-hit, low risk, ring the register mode. then someday...
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    Grinding it out, day after day

    amen. I saw guys take $100,000 to $2+ mil on QCOM leaps back in the day... and right back to $0 in the end guys who hit those jackpots never want to take their gains and be happy... they always insist on holding fast in typical greed fashion. doubt this case will end any different, expect...
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    Grinding it out, day after day

    the cure for all market behavior is the market behavior itself the cure to dull markets is dull market action. a catalyst will soon emerge to break the malaise, volume will flood back in, volatility will rise, trends will emerge the game can be altered, but never changed. it is the...
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    FirstDegree and Crude Oil

    imo crude oil futures are best traded seeking +50 cent to +100 cent or +200 cent profit objectives. CL is definitely not a place to try "scalping" for success, but then again scalping is a fool's folly and almost certain path to ruin good news is, crude oil remains unfettered by whatever...
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    Grinding it out, day after day

    most (if not all) aspiring traders have little to no patience. they have the deep emotional need to press the pedal every day, desperately seeking results. reality is, all days are created very unequal and many days there is precious little to work with in stock markets right now commodity...
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    CL Redux

    every day is a good day to trade strategic breakouts, too. just depends on which part of the tape one is working from :)
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    CL Redux

    fwiw: heads up on the start of G-20 meeting in Seoul today. All G-anything meetings usually churn currency markets to a froth, with out-of-blue spikes and dives at any point on the chart. don't be a hero today... work it with caution if you aren't already done for the session
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    CL Redux

    I want to clarify a statement I made earlier about "paper trades" that was in no way meant to be derogatory. That reference meant to say some things aren't apparent in sim mode that we later discover in real $$ mode. Just so that is perfectly clear: sim trading is a critical step in the...
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    CL Redux

    fwiw: trading CL from inventory release to about five minutes past the news is big-time slippage risk. I had CL trades out -20 cents and -30 cents both directions one time at 10:32am Now the paper traders won't realize that: they see the prints there on a chart, assume ideal fills and count...
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    Grinding it out, day after day

    Friday was the first session in a long time where tapes shrugged off their constant-bid pinning and acted "normally" (historical, traditional, pick your decript) with price action and volume flow. By 11:30am the day's volume run-rate in ES was 3.5 million contracts and TF +/- 225,000...
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    Grinding it out, day after day

    exactly right :)
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    Grinding it out, day after day

    lescor, if my quick math is right, your last three weeks have gone -6k / +15k / -19k for a net total of -10k thru that time. There are people here who would read that and scoff, convinced that "day traders" must be profitable every day or else they are total failures. There are people...
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