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Oooh la la, that here would be a spicy enchilada, indeed...

You can look at it from another angle... Negative rates are the tool by which the mkt will force our elderly oppressors to lower their standard of living (work longer, invest in riskier assets, etc).

OTM options, as a rule, offer more leverage... Apart from the calcs you've done, have you looked at what the vols are on the two options you're comparing?

With such a suggestive title, I am tempted to come up with all sorts of creative responses... Must resist.

You wanna show me a mkt then?

Erm, they both don't happen on Wednesdays, let alone the same Wednesday...

Nah, I am pretty sure Scotland polls were never showing the independence campaign in the lead at any point. However, the polls were definitely indicating a much closer vote than the bookies. I have been busy, is all...

I think there have been explanations given for the divergence between the bookies and the polls already. As to Scotland, what is there to see exactly?

Well, he's data-dependent, innit? I thought that's the sorta thing we like arnd here...

All that said, there's the precedent of Anna Lindh to consider...

Last time an MP was killed while in service was in 1991... This is a big deal.

They have gone pretty high already, innit? How much higher they going?

And now a Labour MP shot and stabbed in West Yorkshire...

UK vote rigged? That would be interesting indeed...

I would tend to agree with you in this, but I think it's wise to be aware of all the shortcomings of the mkt's way of assessing the odds.

There are multiple issues, as I mentioned on another thread... 1) The mkt is pricing a "status quo swing", similar to the Scottish referendum. This may or may not materialize to such an extent. 2) The bets people place don't reflect their personal views, but rather their views on the outcome...

No, because the "status quo" bias is variable, so the spread between the polls and the bookies doesn't have to be constant. For instance, things worked very differently in the Scottish referendum and the 2015 General Election. There are many other issues. For example, all votes are equally...

I am referring to the most recent headlines regarding the NHS and higher taxes. And yes, it sounds like blackmail and I don't like it one bit. And, for the record, previously I have always had a lot of respect for Osborne.

There's been a lot written on this subject. The bookies and the polls are different sampling mechanisms. It's an open question on which one of the two gets it right this time.

Well, judging by what happened with ICM, they pull it 'cause the news organization that commissions these polls (the Guardian in this particular case), wants the results to appear on its site first.