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  1. globalarbtrader

    Oh no, not another python backtester...

    If you actually read the series of blog posts they each reference several gists on git hub. A summary is here: https://qoppac.blogspot.co.uk/p/code.html This section: gists: python-IB-API GAT
  2. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    The short answer is 'no', I've never done much arbitrage. I originally used this username when I was a member of the discussion board community UK branch of fool.com (now sadly demised, but mostly in other hands now at lemonfool.co.uk). At the time I was trying to disguise my identity so I...
  3. globalarbtrader

    Programming: open source licenses

    Again if you could use google: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_free_and_open-source_software_licenses I'm no expert on this but I use GNU v3 for my own stuff (https://github.com/robcarver17/pysystemtrade/blob/master/LICENSE). The summary at the top of the github page is really...
  4. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    When calculated correctly skew is a standardised measure so doesn't need annualising. γ = E([{rt – m}/ s]^3) where y is skew, E is the expectations operator, rt is the return, m is the mean, s is the standard deviation (sorry it looks better in greek) GAT
  5. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    Not everyone rolls. So the spread movement depends on the balance of supply/demand between rollers and non rollers. GAT
  6. globalarbtrader

    The millionaire next door

    Which interestingly is exactly in line with Taleb's philosophy; the median high salaried employee will have much higher wealth and lower wealth dispersion than the median of someone who undertakes risky activities, even if the top end of the latter group will end up with far more money than the...
  7. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    You're exactly right - you shouldn't use % changes, but use delta prices. GAT
  8. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    Thinking about this more deeply: yes the expectation of the gap for a longer term trader will be close to zero, but not exactly zero. If for example I take S&P 500 then I might have an average expectation of a 20% annual move (roughly 1 SR) which is 0.08% per day. Half the bid/ask is 0.125 price...
  9. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    Advantages- Yes bugs are found more quickly Pressure to do things properly - documentation, tests, regular updates to cope with pandas or IB api changes etc Some people have come along and contributed, but you shouldn't assume this will happen in any great numbers - open sourcing isn't an easy...
  10. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    If I do 3 then I have to pay 2x(trading cost in future) If I do 2 then I have to pay 1x(trading cost in future) + 1x(trading cost in spot) In my experience the trading cost in spot is usually higher than the future, hence 3 is cheaper. Of course this wouldn't apply to a cash settled market -...
  11. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    1 is preferable, but not all markets have liquid spreads. 3 is the second best option (all other things being equal will cost you twice the spread option) 2 will usually result in more trading costs, and also gap risk (the price may move between the settlement on one day and when you get to open...
  12. globalarbtrader

    Oh no, not another python backtester...

    Not in an easy way right now GAT
  13. globalarbtrader

    Spitznagel: Not All Risk Mitigation Is Created Equal

    I wrote about this on my blog here. Short answer is I think it does make sense to use CAGR / geometric returns if the target is your median expected wealth at the end of the investing period. So you have to be thinking in terms of probability expectations and also think that using the median is...
  14. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    Well the discussion is about how you deal with handcrafting weights, rather than doing an optimisation. And specifically how you deal with the fact that when grouping things together, groups may vary in how they are diversified (size and correlation), and a sensible adjustment to make for that...
  15. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    It depends on the turnover of the rule but a good rule of thumb for ewmac is to use n of twice the faster mav GAT
  16. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    When I last did this exercise ES was a little more value volatile than NQ. But now because volatility in ES has been crushed the order has been reversed. So I'd agree that ES is better for a small account. GAT
  17. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    You do a scatter plot of the ex-post risk adjusted return vs the ex-ante forecast (both in risk adjusted return units). You will normally see a linear relationship; stronger forecast, stronger risk adjusted return and vice versa. If you saw a binary relationship (positive forecast, positive risk...
  18. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    From my second book: "Consider the simple three asset portfolio I used when I introduced the handcrafting method: UK equities, US bonds, and US equities. The grouped weights of this portfolio that maximise Sharpe Ratio are 50% in US bonds, 25% in UK equities, and 25% in US equities. These are...
  19. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    Of course. A cleaner measure of performance might be something like my entire portfolio vs AHL risk parity + X% momentum. GAT
  20. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    Both - I have multiple variations of carry, with different smooths; and carry gets a lower weight than it would otherwise because I have only two carry trading rules (both with ~10 variations) and about 30 odd variations of different kinds of momentum. GAT
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