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  1. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Yet I bet when some big names miss, that’s a 1-2% drop, like previous quarters. Bears are setting traps, bulls are hedging.
  2. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Except corporate earnings are bad, Samsung profit down 61%, LG profit down 91%, Jeffries profit down 51%, come this Friday big names are starting to report, that is basis of bear theme. Earnings estimates are -4.1%, P/E will have to come down.
  3. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    shorted at 22.75 and closed at 20
  4. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    16 points today, an average day. will open shorts at eod with 20 point target.
  5. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    nice call, copy the short and closed with 10 points.
  6. mervyn

    SMH

    I see. But Samsung is making memory chips as MU, and logical chips as TSMC, so that tells something. LG has large battery unit for EV.
  7. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    short term, today is better but in the next few days for sure. can't go long.
  8. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    i'd sell anything over 3900, not yet, waiting for the chart confirmation. tested 3890, it will head back down again.
  9. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    out with 15 points.
  10. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    we've been here for years now. you know is that not the percentage that matters. it is how many points you take home.
  11. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    it is about time
  12. mervyn

    Best retail broker for my needs?

    there are no other fees except real time data. yes, the margin is high and changes all the time depends on market conditions. start with mes.
  13. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-01-09/morgan-stanley-s-wilson-sell-s-p-500-at-3-900
  14. mervyn

    Best retail broker for my needs?

    I think for a newbie, large required margin is much safer way to practice first. I'd go with IBKR until you are comfortable and consistently profitable. It is very easy to blow up a low margin requirement account.
  15. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    short 3950
  16. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Financial conditions easing is not what the Fed wants, period. They might surprise you. Keep short positions on and scaling out. Only time I want to be on the long side is when forward earnings are stabilized and trending up. We solved other two conditions so far: terminal rate around 5%, and...
  17. mervyn

    T-bills Treasury Direct vs Broker

    No it is not. Yield should be the same as what Treasury Dept published. Investment Rate is ACT/365, high rate is ACT/360.
  18. mervyn

    The China Covid Fiasco

    https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3206035/first-good-news-2023-families-friends-reunite-after-hong-kong-chinese-border-reopens-following-3 I suppose the USDCNH chart looks strong, 7% rally.
  19. mervyn

    SMH

    Not sure if Samsung is in the SMH, but the news is that its profit dropped 69%, while LG profit dropped 91%.
  20. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    hard to decide which poc to take profit, tpo or vp? it is good problem to have.
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