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The only difference between statistical trading methods and technical analysis is the quality and robustness of the backtest. TA is an intellectual cop out, an easy solution preferred out of laziness. That's my view, anyways.

Yep, I have seen this one, of course. I subscribe to Econbrowser. I am with you in that I don't see the Fed willingly hiking next year. I fear, however, that their hand might be forced.

Daal, there's an interesting discussion oin NucPhy, loosely arnd the subjects that you might be interested in. I have chimed in initially, but it's gotten a bit too theoretical for me now. Inflation vs deflation is one of the themes...

FWIW, I think bone knows his stuff and I see nothing illegitimate in what he's selling. His offering sounds refreshingly different from that peddled by the snake oil salesmen. However, the site design has gotta be dealt with. It's just unprofessional.

This is one of the results of Kahneman and Tversky's prospect theory (1979). Generally, this is exactly the sorts of things behavioral economists study.

Well, it's a positive carry, "risk-on" trade, as I mentioned, and I also think yen is overvalued. The Japan disaster scenario is just an outstrike. I agree that it's not likely to happen soon. However, I am effectively getting paid to be long this option, so I am happy to run it. AyeYo...

As well as acquiring the understanding of the few rare cases when put - call parity doesn't hold. But there's been many a discussion of these topics here before.

Open to close, what do you expect an average change on the day is for EURUSD, for example?

Slim to none, I'd say... As to the vol, how much do you think major crosses move on an average day?

Looking at this site made me laugh... Whose fault is it that Americans don't understand what the Fed does? It's not like it's a secret.

Whether it's an algorithm or a bunch of humans doesn't matter. Even if it were an algorithm, it will have to be designed and maintained/updated by humans. The economy isn't static and neither is economics. As to my statement, again let me remind you of what I said before. My view of the...

While they are technically American, why does it matter to you? Each option contract can be exercised into a single futures contract. Which one depends on the particular options that you own. The calendar is somewhat similar to that used for Eurodollars, i.e. there are monthly expiries for...

Well, I don't see anything to suggest that Greenspan's response to Gramlich in this case was driven by any sinister doctrine. What's more, Greenspan's response reinforces the notion that he was just being a good bureaucrat that stuck to his specific remit. Greenspan's faults are well-known...

Nothing personal, indeed.. A civil debate can never be a bad thing. What we fundamentally differ on is simple. It's not that I don't get it; it's just that I am an extreme cynic. My view is, simply, that what we have now is at the better end of the spectrum, given the state of the...

Everything I said are my personal opinions, obviously, no more, no less. My opinions are based on some familiarity with the Fed and its function. It is my view that the Fed had always been and remains now a largely technocratic, apolitical organization. Moreover, your point about Greenspan...

Yep, I'll be crying myself to sleep tonight, for sure, thinking of this cruel blow to my fragile ego... :) You have yerself a nice w/e, nazz!

Yo, Daal! I like this journal... Hope you've made some money this year. If I am permitted, I'd like to chime in every now and then.

My heart bleeds for you...

I completely disagree... I don't know much about stocks, but what you describe is most certainly not the case with bonds and ccies. Firstly, a panic would imply a bid for safe assets, such as govt bonds (you can observe that relatively easily). That means bonds actually "panic" to the...

The dynamics of the skew in rates differ somewhat from those in other asset classes, but ultimately it's a matter of a) lower bound on rates; b) shifting fundamental balance between supply and demand for protection. For example, at the moment there's lots of demand from relatively...