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  1. bone

    Some thoughts on negative oil price

    I can recall about four times where an electronic market was swept. Two of those times it took the market some length of time for the order books to populate (if you want to call it that) - and it was super thin and full of gaps. Point being - if he had on 212 cars at one cent, and then the...
  2. bone

    Historical job report with unimaginable job losses will mean ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to wallstreet!!!

    These forum thread headlines are so predictable - with great joy I know exactly who the OP is :p I cannot name a single seriously informed and objective trader who would correlate the stock market to domestic working class financial health. They have become disengaged. Which is curious for a...
  3. bone

    Some thoughts on negative oil price

    Seriously - who TF buys 212 WTI futures contracts outright with $77K in their account... Never mind the screen pricing disparity - IB Risk Controls should never have allowed him to do that in the first place. And he personally knew better as well. It isn't just IB who was at fault here.
  4. bone

    How important is the win percentage?

    “It all depends” 1. A Hedge Fund whose strategy buys OTM options looking for that big hit - sure, 10% of the trades account for 90% of the profits. 2. A prop firm like DRW with 1,000 employees that arbitrage and make markets in all things from the mundane to the exotic; exchange and...
  5. bone

    How important is the win percentage?

    The paradox of trading "big" is that the trader is usually more selective >> which helps considerably with W/L %. The flip side to the paradox is that you earn the right to successfully trade "big".
  6. bone

    How important is the win percentage?

    I really think that it needs to be greater than 50 percent for most traders. I say that because most traders have rather imperfect position management. Another factor is that for most trading systems the winners are not substantially larger than the losers.
  7. bone

    Yield Spreads

    I'm so happy that you are treading down the path to enlightenment. :strong:
  8. bone

    Yield Spreads

    If you want a 10 Yr Notes to 30 Yr Bond to Ultra Bond Butterfly, simple overlap the leg quantity ratios. The June '20 CME ICS leg quantity ratios for the NoB are 5:2, and for the BoB are 2:1. So, for June '20, the correct 10's-30's-Ultra Butterfly leg quantity ratios would be: 5:4:1. You are...
  9. bone

    Day Trading Tips? I am new to trading !

    Learn to code. Intraday ‘Day’ trading is dominated by high speed Algos and bots using very expensive ECN’s and they pay for order flow. Swing trading - that is, when a trader is quite selective and hangs on to a position for days or weeks or months might be a better way for a noob to go...
  10. bone

    Where Are All the New Market Wizards

    You realize that DRW has 1,000 employees, and a fair chunk of them gross numbers like that. I can name several Chicago firms that have prop traders on staff that can gross that or more. Jump, Belvedere, Peak 6, Geneva, TMG to name a few.
  11. bone

    Where Are All the New Market Wizards

    Don Wilson certainly has a story worth listening to. And he doesn’t have a narcissistic YouTube channel.
  12. bone

    Hedging ES with MES

    BS. For a dozen reasons you already know. As if your ES position would bury you and MES would magically suspend itself in time waiting for your magical “hedge” offset. :cool:
  13. bone

    Buffet sold all airline stocks

    Who TF would ever hold an airline stock long term is beyond me. What was Buffett thinking :vomit:
  14. bone

    Where Are All the New Market Wizards

    I could have named off a dozen traders in Chicago that could have made the list - but didn’t want Jack Schwaeger’s KISS of DEATH.
  15. bone

    The peak is going to be an extended plateau

    Quite a macabre, rudderless thread.
  16. bone

    The peak is going to be an extended plateau

    1. Numbers are being underreported by private hospices for liability reasons and over reported by State governments in order to increase federal aid. If there is no private attending physician and the deceased is elderly - States are calling the death COVID. Point being - I personally don’t...
  17. bone

    The peak is going to be an extended plateau

    1. States with large urban areas are listing elderly deaths without autopsies to COVID on death certificates in order to get more federal funds. 2. Private nursing homes are only listing confirmed by testing COVID deaths - they want to avoid litigation. 3. States with more rural populations...
  18. bone

    Members Exchange launch approved by SEC

    There was a period of time during the late 90’s and early 2000’s when the futures exchanges quite literally just copied each other’s benchmark products and made them cash settled if they were physically settled on their original exchange. Poaching was the norm. CBOT listed Eurodollars and FX...
  19. bone

    Some thoughts on negative oil price

    The {negative} pricing was a temporary dislocation caused by brokers auto liquidating long positions at market into a super thin market. Why was the market super thin? Because there was zero Commercial interest on the Buy side so close to first notice day for a product they don’t want to take...
  20. bone

    Some thoughts on negative oil price

    Translation: just because the price is negative is coincidental - the exchange will still facilitate delivery and settlement. If sellers are paying buyers for the privilege then so be it.
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