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I broadly agree with this assessment. George Osborne, especially, is acting in quite a reprehensible fashion. In fact, his rhetoric is likely to push me, a current "undecided", towards voting "Leave".

I plan to be light to flat into the event, in hopes of getting involved in some action in the aftermath.

Ayatollah of Rock 'n Rolla.

Given that nobody really has a clue what "Brexit" actually means, it's hard to know when it gets "close to being priced in".

Yeah, so Yoda just watches the polling sites like a hawk and reports when they put smth up, before they pull it.

Yoda sez he actually got the results from the ICM website, before they took it down.

I'll ask Yoda tomorrow what he's doing...

I think you should stop deluding yourself, really... It's all the same strategy, which has a variety of names, e.g. "picking pennies in front of a steamroller", "eating like a bird, sh1tting like an elephant", etc etc etc. How many extra puts or calls you be selling hardly matters, in the...

Stop being a muppet... The Greeks are instantaneous factors, not "statistics of PAST price movements". Great options trading is, first and foremost, about not being silly and not ignorantly dismissing useful concepts.

What currencies will change?

Betfair hasn't really moved all that much during all of this debate malarkey...

Iz no problem, I am happy that we can have a discussion about it...

DRW is a good shop, no question about it... The lawsuit is a little funny, btw. It's not clear to me DRW was doing smth wrong.

Expect the unexpected... It,s anybody's guess what would happen if we vote "Leave"". Maybe nothing, who knows.

This is correct... Another thing that insco's do is hold large reserves (in fact, they're required to do so by the regulator).

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887

That's right... If you look at the term structure of vol in pretty much any asset at the moment, you'll see a very clear kink. It's all about Brexit being priced, rather than all the other randomness.

I am really not sure what obvious things I am not understanding, but be that as it may... Best of luck to you regardless!

To be sure I understand you correctly... Your methodology suggests that, once earnings are released, one should hedge if the underlying breaches the strike? Does that mean you hedged yesterday?

I have no idea. I never sell options when the argument is "it won't ever get there". Just out of curiosity, why would one need to hedge "from now on" and not from yesterday, when VRX fell below the strike?