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Well, I would probably agree that, at least in my central scenario, life shouldn't change dramatically and England won't become Venezuela. However, with uncertainty comes a possibility of a somewhat painful sh1tshow. For instance, I can imagine that the EU now does what it has always wanted...

Well, I do agree with you, to an extent... Sometimes the mkt is a drama queen and nothing much ends up happening. However, every now and then you get a Lehman. Obviously, not such an incredibly big deal either, in the really grand scheme of things. But then, in the grand scheme of things...

It's tough... Only one thing you can be sure of and that's uncertainty. There are so many questions now, it's rather scary. How it all finally pans out is anyone's guess. Fingers crossed.

The best argument for democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average unelected ruler. ~ Me

Nobody knows what it means, in the medium to long term. It primarily depends on what happens with Europe now.

It's fine, I was awake, watching the fun 'n gamez. As to being a free man, it's all a little tricky now, all of a sudden.

Indeedy... Just a wee bit.

He/she is implicitly forecasting it, innit? I dunno abt the specifics of this particular trade, since it's SPY. However, given what's been going on in other assets, it doesn't appear stupid, provided Bremain does prevail. Obv, some other minor complications, as well. Maybe I'm missing smth...

This doesn't make a lot of sense...

The mkt is now fully expecting a "Remain" win... Anecdotally, turnout was, indeed, large, as there was a big queue at my polling station as well. High turnout is expected to benefit "Remain". Also, there's another poll result just out.

My mkt would be a lot tighter, obv, given where Betfair is... Sounds wonderfully easy in theory... In practice, not so much.

Again, the Betfair "Remain" mkt is a binary, which is very different to the polls... Other differences apply, as previously noted.

Nothing to do... Your mid is a bit low, given where Betfair is at the moment, but it's OK.

I am pretty sure the NATO freeriders are already doing a pretty good job undermining it. Don't think they need any help.

What's wrong with the idea of having an EU Army?

Yes, I can see how that can work in small mkts where the number of inputs is limited, as in the various pumps and dumps. It's very very hard for me to imagine a successful manipulation on a grand scale that ZH is describing. Simply because the manipulator will be facing all sorts of risks and...

This all sounds wonderfully easy and plausible in hindsight, which, I suppose, is what ZH is good at... In reality, such a strategy offers exceedingly low risk reward, unless one gets lucky.

If I recall correctly, Betfair was broadly correct on the outcome of the GE, but got the magnitude of the Conservative win totally wrong.

Nice and tight mkt here, eh :)?

Why?