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My personal null hypothesis is that, where tall tales of Joe Retail who started with $10K and is now worth $200MM are concerned it's all survivorship bias. If you have some evidence to the contrary, I'd love to see it, but my view, simplistically, is that it's the case of proverbial monkeys and...

I'd suggest that all these (mostly anecdotal) monster success stories are inconclusive, at best. To me, they only serve as yet more evidence of survivorship bias (not that any more evidence were needed)...

An interesting question is where the banks have the Ambac-wrapped stuff marked... While I am sure that most have written their turds down to near zero (or hedged it), I wouldn't be too surprised if there are a few sneaky skeletons lingering in a few Wall St cupboards.

Why 20% and not 50 and not 100% and not 1%?

Well, it's not like we're talking about anything particularly esoteric here... Nothing is preventing me from asking 5 different brokers for a price on the same trade and putting a few counterparties in comp. Moreover, nothing prevents me from novating an existing trade to a different...

I agree with you in this, Maestro, fwiw, by and large... One caveat, though. There are times when commonly observed 'technical indicators' show up indirectly as symptoms of specific behavioral biases.

IMHO, the issues of counterparty exposure and conflict of interest you describe are the least applicable in the vanilla FX option mkt... The liquidity you would get in vanilla FX options in OTC is multiple orders of magnitude better than anything any exchange can offer here and now...

The calendar for these is like that for the bond futures, I believe... Specifically, expiries are monthly on the corresponding quarterly contract. So, for example there are Nov9 (SPX9) and Dec (SPZ9) expiries on the Dec9 (SPZ9) underlying; Jan10 (SPF0), Feb10 (SPG0) and Mar10 (SPH0) on Mar10...

Well, let's say you run PCA and it gives you a set of factors with the factor loadings. How are you intending to establish the actual mkt significance of each of these factors? Why would you necessarily expect that a small number of significant factors that you will extract actually...

Well, there's a certain shop in Prague that, supposedly, accounts for between 20% and 40% of volume in some LIFFE STIR futures. See here: http://www.rsj.cz/current-volumes-401152939.html

If liquidity on ELX is a lot worse then that's obviously a problem. I assume BT50 was referring to me as a 'poster, who doesn't understand liquidity'. You will note, however, that all my comments were prefaced with 'assuming the same liquidity'. At the moment, I see that the mkt on the ELX...

1. Real GDP growth due to growth in TFP 2. Inflation 3. Survivorship bias 4. Secular shifts in investor preferences

I have always said that it was a good trade... I think there was a thread about it last year or earlier this year.

As long as my collateral is safe, there is liquidity comparable to the CME, AND it saves me money, why would I give a flying rat's ass about who is behind the exchange? As to your point about the liquidity of the mkt, that's disingenuous. If bid/ask on the ELX is the same as that on the CME...

i think Buffett's trade was brilliant on a variety of levels...

SomeDevil, is that you? You back?

Please accept my sincere condolences. You might try here: http://www.euronext.com/trader/contractspecifications/derivative/wide/contractspecifications-3640-EN.html?euronextCode=R-LON-FUT http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/uk.html Not sure where you can find real-time data...

I was just making a neutral observation that someone with the name 'Ghost of Cutten' still periodically posts stuff... The rest was my sad attempt at humor.

Sorry, I should be more clear... Since I am lazy, this gives the reasoning in relatively simple terms: http://www.tradersnarrative.com/why-weak-dollar-helps-the-stock-market-1340.html There is also interest rate parity. Everything else being equal, strong dollar has to result from the...

What is the stock mkt, or, more precisely, returns from investing in the stock mkt, denominated in?