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  1. M

    Germany to prolongate short-time work regulation

    Well, all these measures do is make the downturns a lot more shallow, but a lot longer, due to a large overhang of labor.
  2. M

    EXPLAIN: How is economy in depression state with only -2.5% GDP

    Answer is that it's partially due to stimulus and govt consumption...
  3. M

    What goes up in crash, de/inflation, and depression?

    Guns and cans of baked beanz... Maybe gold, but unlikely to help a lot, really.
  4. M

    TBT still falling

    It's the same wall of cash going into all assets indiscriminately: equities, corps, govt bonds, you name it... A rising tide lifts all boats, including long-dated treasuries.
  5. M

    What Is The Dollar Worth ?

    Hmmmm, if this were in fact the case, it would be a very bad thing indeed. Would you be able to cite sources for this or provide specific details of your calculations/data?
  6. M

    What Is The Dollar Worth ?

    I see. So you're expecting the notes themselves (the currency, not the capital it can represent) to serve as a store of value, apart from being the medium of exchange?
  7. M

    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    Could be you're correct. I have not considered it carefully enough.
  8. M

    What Is The Dollar Worth ?

    What medium do you use to measure the "worth of the dollar" today and in 1913? Unless you specify that, how can you conclude that the dollar depreciated? Maybe, it's the other medium that has appreciated? Moreover, there's really no such thing as the "worth of the dollar". It's just a...
  9. M

    What Is The Dollar Worth ?

    +1, totally agree...
  10. M

    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    Sorry, my fault... I should have formulated it better. The idea behind the theory is that it's exactly the second derivative that drives behavior.
  11. M

    China State Construction nets $100m US subway deal in Manhattan

    Here's why (courtesy of The Big Picture):
  12. M

    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    Well, if you look through the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey (here: http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/snloansurvey/200911/), you may conclude that credit conditions have eased quite a bit since we plumbed the depths of despair in late 2008. Attached is just a couple of charts, but they...
  13. M

    Convertible Bond Trading?

    While that is extremely sweet and generous, sadly I have to decline. Only your life will do... :)
  14. M

    Convertible Bond Trading?

    I could tell you, but then I'd have to kill you :)...
  15. M

    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    One of the alternative theories I have heard (from Deutsche's ecos, I think) is that it's not the absolute amount of credit (as measured by the various credit condition indices) that matters. What matters is the incremental change in the amount of credit available, as it has an inordinate...
  16. M

    Anybody else short US 30 Bond

    Spot DV01, per 1000 contracts: 2y $44.67k/bp 5y $50.23k/bp 10y $72.42k/bp Bond $128.68k/bp
  17. M

    China State Construction nets $100m US subway deal in Manhattan

    This is the invisible hand at work, the process of correcting the global imbalances in action. Economics is a real b1tch sometimes, innit? However, the time is nigh, unfortunately, for the US to face reality.
  18. M

    Convertible Bond Trading?

    Yes, this is for the INTC 2.95% 12/35 junior subordinated convertible debentures... Good luck with your quest... Just out of curiosity, imagine I am a broker that can deal in these for you and I can offer you some at par. How would you go about deciding if this is cheap or rich?
  19. M

    Convertible Bond Trading?

    CUSIP is 458140AD2... Go for it, knock yourself out.
  20. M

    Convertible Bond Trading?

    They are liquid for institutional investors (depends on issue, name etc)... As far as I know, the only way retail investors can access these is through convertible bond mutual funds.
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