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It is clear that bond holders win. A sign that they win is that they have been lending at decreasing interest rate. If they were doing less, they would have demanded a higher return for their bonds. In addition to interest, a bond holder has implicit put options.

You made excellent posts. I would like to add that the numbers could be worse as the analysis did not take into account the survivor bias in the dow. I would not be surprised (in fact that is what I would expect) if the compounded return turned out to negative (or less than one for geometric...

I doubt the existence of backers just to back traders even if a trader were to make money.

First try: Uncle Sam on top of AUD: -AUD/USD at 0.94765

False! Worse, inflation can cause an implosion. Worse than worse: if one were to fight it too late, one could accelerate the implosion.

Now the bears seem to have grabbed the bulls from the neck at mile 360. Will they get them to 340 and at what speed? Now at the 362.50 area. Moment of truth for today has come.

What happens if one owns a spread?

Excellent post! Put sellers hate to be in the situations you describe which means it is a dream world for put buyers. Do you have a list of stocks you are following currently on the short side?

:p

Deflation in japan makes the Yen as if it were paying an interest or a capital gain. I just sold some AUD/JPY before writing this post, and it is already in the green by 10 pips by the time I finished.

Why you did not sell Jan instead? A hypothetical for tomorrow as a comparison.

That was the advantage you had with QQQ-- you have more time. So you are not playing the alpha of appl but the effect of alpha change of appl on the deltas of QQQ calls.

I believe your analysis is incorrect.

So essentially the market was predicting a gap of 30, and your bet was it would be less than (20 + premium).

Explain in more details.

Yes, because Italy does not own the printing press. It needs others to do it for her. On the other hand isn't Italy in a better position? Don't they have the option to leave the euro, default and start anew.

Did you ask him to test him, to know, or to be sarcastic? I think I know why you asked.

Was this question asked: "Can inflation cause an implosion". Did anyone ask this question to whom the question should be asked? And what was his answer?

what was the trade including any hedging?

I find AAPL PE low, and therefore believe it would likely stay in range, or may fall, more likely than rise. 368 is about about 10% above current appl price, which would correspond to 83.50 given appl's % in the QQQ. So I concluded that 83 to 83.50 may be more a resistance to QQQ, which...