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You have to save more to compensate for the super low rates. Arrogant "i can cause inflation in 15 minutes" Ben was wrong. The fact that those of an age that can save, and , are saving more and looking forward to deflation is a problem for the fed. It has become personal for me that "they cant...

Yes, i see what you mean. I plotted +2015-2016-2016+2017 which is close to a +red-green-green+blue fly. The 1st leg is a steepener that loses a little and the 2nd half is the flattener that dominates. It trends about 25 bp.over the last year at $100 per bp. Thanks i will test my commissions...

I think that multinational companies producing goods outside the US cant raise sales prices in depreciating local foreign currency so they lose in the exchange to rising USD. These same foreign countries would 'lose' by purchasing things made in the US and priced locally. US Exporters would...

Are you saying "no badges for you" to those posters? That is harsh, man.

At least in a recession, even with ZIRP, real interest rates rise and you "earn" by holding on to your simultaneously increasing value dollar. Heres to the next recession! Actually, real interest rates are rising now withinflation expectations falling pretty fast. Commodities are negatively...

Eurodollar calander spreads seem to have very high correlation and cointegration along with good liquidity for a few years out. Having taken a first trade of this type lately( steepener for the last couple weeks in this stock rally), the commisions with IB $4.02 for a single spread and...

1 week,or less, of currency risk can wipe out a year of carry. At some point you have to close and net both. My language may not be right but the concept of the two components is real. AUD/USD is a good example of this.

Is there really enough sp500 corporate equity to go around for all the money in the world? Is it probable that the vast majority of money in the world achieves a return much less than US equities, more comparable to prevailing interest rates in developed countries? No answers here..just questions.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20141029a.htm R.I.P. QE3.

Taper was hard, uninterrupted, not data dependent. Low rates for a a year or so is discounted. I look for a Bullard pump and an annoucement dump on Wednesday. Taper finished and no mention of the next QE could be a temporary disappointment. Very temporary.

Reseves prevent banks from having to sell assets, raise capital through equity or debt, or, apply retained to non productive capiatal requirements. Lunch money may also be stolen and applied to top teir capital. A resrve dollar in my left pocket frees ten dollars in my right pocket for bitcoin...

2.8 T are extra reserves deposited electronically , earning interest , at the fed. I beleive it could be converted into cash or short term UST if a bank wanted to do that. I dont know if they could convert fed reserve deposits to high risk assets (sp 500 stocks). I dont think so. There is no...

What does ramdom mean? "Chauncey Gardner"

There remains faith in the fed. How man times have we seen bureaucracies exposed as incompetent when finally tested. Hardly any individual or agency is capable to respond to crisis effectively. Denial and unpreparedness rule. But, the fed did eventually respond to crisis , albeit late...

6 months from now you may read a plausible theory of what transpired in gold as we speak. Someone will make sense of the PA. Uncertainty and the Mamis thing in play here. What else can you do? Bull run in bonds is a prime example. Now i read from professionals that banks have been large buyers...

20 odd days ago at FOMC the fed was dovish , maybe not full tilt, but that was the consensus and jerked stocks to highs for a day or so. Bonds sorted it out with big doji , indecisive days. Then rate hike expectations were pushed futher out in 2015 in following days. Simultaneously, Europe...

Never again will they ignore declining equities. That can lead to a financial crisis. This simple speak is no joke. How much of this decline would you attribute to Ebola uncertainty? Is that in a Fed model?

Cant really discern the 2013 taper tantrum. The 2013 US New year sequestration/government shutdown is the last discernable mild "correction". Fiscal idiots disappeared after that fully relinquishing control to the fed. 2014 has not had a SPY 300,000,000 volume day. These used to be pretty...

A typical eurodollar spread, of which I can model hundreds with EOD data, as an example, has an overnight margin of $700. This seems like a good market to measure and construct neutral spreads. I see that this market is not what it used to be with ZIRP , however, on a yearly chart the...

A fourth dip buying opportunity presents itself in this correction. I am not usually this lucky to be able to add to the previous three at bargain valuation levels. Hope to get a few more opportunities at lower levels as well. Stop is at 5 oct 2011 ES price of 105 because it is the closest...