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"Bingo!!" (IMNSHO.)

No no no -- in this case, most definitely, huge is good.

I would put stock into seeing that t-shirt get wet -- is that what you meant? :):):D:):)

I went to my online dating profile and re-named myself Digi-cash Master, and I've received 3 requests / proposals from pure hotties in the last 45 minutes. Six. Make that six. Nooooo, 7! Hey -- look guys -- gotta go. Up to 29 in 50 minutes.

Does Elliott Wave Theory actually work? No.

Paper trade. Write down your trading protocol as if you were going to program it. Program it.

Buy the rising stocks; sell the falling stocks. Rinse; repeat.

tos_user, I am not a ToS user, but I do know that it has individual strike IVs -- as does every other option platform of which I am aware. But like RM, I am not convinced you have really thought out what it is you want. The IV of a single strike is a single datum -- and to have a graph, you...

I confess I was *hoping* for it, but we have seen so many typical market behaviors put on hold over the last few years, I was/am not confident of a take-profits day (or two). I've got a too-big collection of stinky positions on top, and I'm taking them out, and waiting for vol to recover. (Heh...

"Relative" to what?? The Future!!! (Way big :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:)

Some thoughts: "Kelly" was developed as a signal-to-noise metric -- it was not intended to follow a specific wave, but the entirety of transmission. Kelly has been borrowed (and enjoyed!) for the entirety of trading: portfolio analysis. And Kelly is useful for overall strategies' evaluation...

No -- what you're observing is the nature of the ES FOPs for that expiry.

Risk is for sure. ("For sure!") :D

Our futures had been in backwardation for a long time -- this move to contango got my attention. Less than figuring out the structural equation changes needed to see such results, I was just trying to identify the current, real-world changes going on. There are some markets out there that have...

It's the exchange, as well. Stuff cleared to CFTC rules (that near-instantaneous resolution of ES that you noted) is also so-way-badly subject to SPAN screwations in your account. (Godawful bad news.) Stuff cleared to SEC rules (SPX, say...) takes longer to resolve (2-4 hours? more?), but at...

But if you *do* invest -- only buy stocks that are going up. (That's my advice, anyway. I mean, you know, "YMMV" and all of that...)

sle, re: your original post... A whole lot of decision-making in humans is (/can be) in figuring out the relevant data. And, just like when looking at any stock chart, we may sometimes end up with *so*much* data that we lean over into the dreaded analysis paralysis. {Someone in the crowd was...

Euler, I thought your post was funny -- had just the right amount of near-tangible to seem realistic, but more than enough snark to say, "Oh, I am SO sick of hearing/reading this crap." I dunno. I thought it was well-played. If you'd made it *too* obvious, nobody would've responded; if you made...

Some marvelous hints of verticals and calendars around the major strikes.... But to infer motive??? Wooo! Not me. I'd restrict myself to observing what such risk buy-in and sell-out could do to other movers -- options are, remember, insurance.