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Even though the OP has stuck his fingers in his ears and is loudly singing La La La, beginners and otherwise interested traders who come across this thread may learn something from Mark's posts -- this and the last -- and save themselves the potential damage to their accounts. If the OP were...

For a trader with a 25k account and no trading plan, a realistic return would likely be zero. More likely the account balance would be considerably less at the end of the year, if he made it that far. I suggest you read and re-read wrbtrader's post above. He tells you everything you need to know.

The markets don't go up 25%/wk.

I don't know that I'd call it obsessive. Rather an acknowledgement of how auction markets work. It is what it is.

He didn't say it was going to be THIS Friday. :)

The trading itself is interesting, but watching it unfold is pedestrian. This morning, for example, the trading was done by 0940. All that was left was for price to reach the end of its run. And I only trade for 90-120m, so I have plenty of time to do other things. No. You're welcome to try...

Why would I want to do that? About 15 yrs.

Within the structure of my rules, yes. Very well.

You've made it quite clear that you find it difficult, but that need not be the case for everyone.

No. Nor can one become an accomplished price trader by looking at only a couple of charts. But it doesn't take "years and years". If one can tell time and tie his own shoes. Otherwise . . .

If one can't tell time or tie his own shoes. Otherwise he can accomplish the task in relatively short order.

To reiterate:

A higher low leads to a reversal. That's pretty much the point. It can, however, fail and lead to a lower low, but that depends largely on the context. If you're interested in trading without indicators, you may want to look at this.

Well, yes, but few people can do it properly. See below. When observing, beginners think of little else but where to enter and where to exit in order to make the greatest number of points, which defeats the purpose of the observation. Since they learn little if anything about price movement...

Observation Backtesting

You can start with this: Developing a Plan. Once you have the overview, the following threads may be of help: Observation Backtesting

The "positive expectancy" is irrelevant. Unless and until you test your hypotheses thoroughly, backward and forward, then determine whether or not the plan is consistently profitable, you'll never be able to trust it, and if you can't trust it, you'll never be able to find the discipline to...

Have you thoroughly tested it and is it consistently profitable? If not, the discipline issue is irrelevant.

If you haven't a robust trading plan, it won't make any difference whether you trade equity futures, oil, stocks, or forex; you are almost guaranteed to blow your account a third time.

You said so. If you have a trading plan, what is it? If you don't, then all you're doing is repeating what you've read or heard somewhere. Which is common amongst recreational traders.