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Didn't see it but I'm a New Yorker. Not so thin skined!!

That's rediculous. Everyone with half a brain knew we were in a bubble by 2005. The hard part was controlling the greed and getting out in time. My cousin was a "C" class executive at a major mortgage lender and resigned in 2006. As he told me them -- "We are now lending to people we know --...

ES the most used idex for the trading you describe encompasses all 500 stocks. I can assure you the liquidity is second to none. During RTH it is one of the most liquid markets in the world.

It was and may still be an overheated market. I don't think anyone should be shocked by the magnitude of this sell off. Yes, it is sharp but that is certainly not a shocker considering the velocity on the way up.

Bubbles don't happen because house prices recover to preious highs or prices go up for six months or even a year. I'm not suggesting houses can't dip from here but that would not be a new bubble bursting because we are not in a housing bubble. Inventory needs to be taken out and speculative...

What ... no palm reader!!!

"probably" ... gently said! ... lol.

I agree. Sizing, money mgm't and all the rest still need to rest on a positive expectation.

Why is that quarter 8X better than the full year would be?

Fair enough. Any tool that helps people find that comfort level may be of value.

For the vast majority of traders optimal is not only irrelevant but dangerous. They know when they are exceeding their comfort level and should pull back to what has been refeered to as the "sleeping point". As I've said for those experienced, accomplished traders optimizing is important...

For most traders the key to position sizing is not how to optimize but how to comfortize. Figure out where you are comfortable on the capital base you have at any given time even if that means you are leaving some money on the table. You are a better trader when you can afford to take losses...

I'm impressed that 43% of IB's FOREX traders are profitable. I would not have thought the numbers were that good anywhere. I do think the $10,000 minimum and that sharper guys will look for better counterparties are major contributers to that number.

I agree with the substantive points in this thread but can we all stop equating increasing size with martingale? One can be increasing size in a variety of ways and not be martingaling!

There are few women traders ... so what? The guy has an opinion as to why ... so what? Increasingly the Western world seems to think one man's opinion is a threat to our civilization. I am not of that opinion.

Is the overpowering need to pick tops and bottoms a recognized psychiatric disorder? If it is not it should be. Or does it simpy fall under the catagory of egomania? I don't get it, I've never gotten it, and I'm reasonably certain I will never get it.

I agree but that is part of what makes this advice so good. Before you get there hold on to your capital. You need to know you've got a positive expectation to take repetitive risk.

This is a pretty damn good piece of advice. Live and die by this nugget and you increase your odds of making it exponentially!!!

Not even a minnow ... a tiny minnow. He's a guy that has put himself in a number of highly leveraged semi-liquid positions and been screwed. Usually by himself!

lol ... the courts are there for the lttle guy? VN is the little guy? Your head is so far up that you'll never see daylight even if you live to be a thousand!