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    Trend Following depends on Prediction

    There are a small percentage of traders that make money jumping on moves for the ride. There is another small percentage tht fade moves and make money. Most occupations that have a potential pot of gold at the end of the rainbow -- Rock-n-Roll, Acting, Proffesional Sports -- have very few pots...
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    Help: Bank of Cyprus took my deposits

    As you know, Mr. Ross does not leave deposits in the banks waiting for them to go broke he negotiates a private placement after they are broke.
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    Help: Bank of Cyprus took my deposits

    So you believe that the equity you own today is worth as much as the deposit you had six weeks ago? iIm not speaking of the phenomenal appreciation you anticipate I mean right here and now.
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    Help: Bank of Cyprus took my deposits

    Now I'm depressesd. If I had been smart enough to have money in the Bank of Cyprus I could have been involuntarily converted into equity and be sitting on a great come bet that will probably result in a great return ... someday. WOW ... did I miss out!!
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    Help: Bank of Cyprus took my deposits

    I do not believe this is a template for the future. I think once the results are in on this abortion even the idiots -- meaning the world's public officials -- will see this does not work for them. The SOB's will determine that they need to focus on the old stanbys to pick our pocket --...
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    Help: Bank of Cyprus took my deposits

    Ladies and gentleman counterparty risk is real. And to regard any Cypriot bank as being a reasonable counterparty is simply lunacy. The handwriting was not on the wall they were writing it on your eyeballs. No one over the age of 15 should have been screwed in this deal. You had two years...
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    EricP, Lescor, Patrickq, Dustin and gang..

    So you believe you will hit your target before the stop on approximately two trades out of three. How many ticks to your stop and how many to your target and in what instrument? I'm not asking you for the setup. I assume that is proprietary.
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    EricP, Lescor, Patrickq, Dustin and gang..

    He said he had a high degree of confidence in the setup; he did not say he would bet the ranch on it and then bet the ranch again and again. C'mon, a bit of reality might help.
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    EricP, Lescor, Patrickq, Dustin and gang..

    The real problem with the "once-in-a-blue-moon-setup" is that you need to back it too big to build a plan around it and you can easily be shaken with just a few losses. You need quality but can't wait for pristine.
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    EricP, Lescor, Patrickq, Dustin and gang..

    When you say this do you mean that some very small percentage of human beings can be taught to hit a 99 mph pitch or that it is just another learnable skill? To hit even AA pitching is something very few people could ever learn. To hit major league pitching is damn near impossible even for...
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    The bull run is over--- WSJ headlines

    That's great. Now when the market listens to those wonderful indicators and gives us price action to observe that it has run (NOT IS RUNNING) out of steam we can avoid the dangerous game of trying to pick a top. We can have the comfort of saying to ourselves: "Self -- I believe the top...
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    The bull run is over--- WSJ headlines

    I think the firms are leaner -- much leaner -- but the demand side is certainly trelated to rates. My contention is without the loose mony we would be mired in a very deep recession (maybe a depression) that would leave many firms without earnings. It's all weel and good to credit the Captain...
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    The bull run is over--- WSJ headlines

    I think just the hint of the money machine being unplugged sends it down fast and hard. But, in the meantime ...
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    The bull run is over--- WSJ headlines

    I don't think anyone is making the point that the market is wildly overvalued relative to earnings but those earnings are only possible with the FED floating the boats. As long as money continues to flow without inflation roaring the market can go higher. I think what most are saying is that...
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    Al brooks says breakouts provide the largest edge for a trader yet...

    What smells like a feast to a North Korean might smell like dog food to an Italian. Of course anyone that sells any trading information is suspect but I believe he spent a good number of years trading before he made his first dollar from "teaching". Do I know that as fact? No. And because of...
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    Al brooks says breakouts provide the largest edge for a trader yet...

    Al's writing style leaves a great deal to be desired -- sometimes even the English language. Yet I think there is also a great deal of truth to wrb's comment. Lots of the easy to read, easy to understand pablum is truly nonsense. There is a lot in Al's work that can contribute to a winning...
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    Cyprus deal 40% haircut

    When you launder the money typically moves on to a safer jurisdiction. You have to bet that is what the Russians did here. What they are losing is the proverbial tip of the iceberg. The Cypriots have lost a country. Do you think the Russians may have bribed an official or two?
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    Al brooks says breakouts provide the largest edge for a trader yet...

    I don't think that is accurate because the same time he talked about the friend who made 10 ES pts. daily he also quoted the friend (as smilingsynic said) as saying even a relatively new trader should extract 6 pts. daily which Al said shocked him. Anyone who thinks that even the talented trader...
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    The bull run is over--- WSJ headlines

    Seems to me that trying to pick the top of a strong bull (as opposed to waiting for it to become a bear) is about as reasonable as opening an airline. By and large both are bad businesses to be in most of the time. Please note I am not saying it can't be done but I'm saying there are easier...
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