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What do you anticipate your average holding period to be? The micros look impossible to trade short term.

Counter party risk is just that risk. No matter how each of us decides to calculate that risk it must be calculated and if and when that risk seems to be increasing action needs to be taken. If you need to seriously think about the safety of your capital it's a no brainer. Move it.

Full faith and credit now means full faith and credit only after we see what is left after others skip the line. If this become the template for municiple bankruptcys it will have an insidious effect on all credit markets in time. zdreg...

I'm curious as to how money think Stock777 has it right regarding bitcoin as a long term store of value. I don't mean you would hold 50% of your net worth there but that you would take a significant portion of you net worth (15% or more) and make it a core holding. For the record I have never...

Use a PM if you want to reach someone privately. Most people probably do see a world of difference between the 50 mil and a billion yet my guess is if they give it some thought many will see that the change in circumstance is so significant that the difference in the quality of their lives is...

Yes, I would. I see little diference in my life between having $50 million and a billion. Since the $50,000,000 does not tempt me why should the nice fat round number get me excited!

Can you elaborate on this? How can I consider a setup with a negative expectation over the long run? It is about the long run not getting lucky on Tuesday!

Yes ... it is an asset bubble but why would I want to miss the ride? Am I unwilling to earn unless the "type" of bull market pleases me. Am I so fastidious that I need the run up to be based on sound FED and fiscal policies. The girl is pretty, she is willing, it is late and we both have had...

I'm a bit perplexed by much of the debate in this thread. It's a bull market and at some point it will become a doubtful market and at another point it will become a bear. The only fruitfull conversation is about how to recognize the turn. In the meantime being long is smart and everything...

No ... a parking ticket.

It was Livermore and they were both presidents of railroads. One line went belly up and the other prosperded.

On a scale of 1 to 10 this might be a 2 ... or even a 1. This is really a small matter.

It's a bull market and it takes more than a tin cup dictator and a jobs report to take the steam out of it. Now, if the market had already turned bear bits of crap news can send it done 150 in a day and 350 for the week.

I'm an admirer of Livermore yet one can't help but wonder if the high living did not factor into him going broke multiple times. It is also my experience that guys that have a reputation for living high have a harder time convincing people to finance them when times are tough. I'm not an...

Isn't PA so important because you can't know when. Naratives, even when they are correct, are frequently very costly propositions. BTW, I accept you premise that it will all blow up -- SOMEDAY!!

Don't know about the fundementals -- although their monopoly on the high end is clearly over -- but I could never get long an issue like this until one of two things happened: 1) As has been said massive capitulation; 2) or a significant base was put in and an upside breakout with reasonable...

Your take is always appreciated.

The time is on my side narrative is generally a "hard biscuit " as my British friends would say. For those with the capital taking a small (say 20% position) and then scalling in as it rises with a real cushion behind your full position (I'm not advocating a Martingale!!!) is a valid approach...

Suppose I'm moving my stop on my inititial position below support and I place the stop on my add on in the same place -- have I simply not allowed my increased size to affect my trade management? Or do you not believe in moving the initial stop (I assume the it is catastophic and not an exit...

atticus, Does your aversion to adding on apply to longer timeframes as well or only intraday or few day swings? If so what is the rational behind it?